BPF needs more than Khama magic
Innocent Selatlhwa | Tuesday October 29, 2024 09:06
Following a series of internal rifts, the party splintered, giving rise to the Botswana Republican Party (BRP) last October. As the BPF prepares for the upcoming elections on October 30, divisions remain apparent, with some members, including key executive figures, contesting under the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) banner. The BPF has always been known to rely on the so-called ‘Khama Magic’ with the belief that Khama has his way of attracting people to himself and any causes he partakes in. Even the man who would ordinarily be the face of the party’s campaign, president Mephato Reatile admitted at a press conference recently that it would take just the presence of Khama at their party events and saying a few words that would ensure that though they came late to the campaign season, they would still perform greatly. Interestingly, despite the party not having been clear on its election plan, joining the UDC then leaving before elections, internal fighting leading to court cases, absence of party manifesto, the BPF has been the biggest beneficiary of primary elections casualties from other parties. The party until just before nominations were made was accepting disgruntled members from the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) and opposition parties with most of them going on to test in new territories almost in any region.
Also, it has never been about what the BPF as a party can offer or what is in their manifesto, but rather they hope to benefit from Khama’s popularity and assumed sympathy votes over his self-exile which he says he was forced on by government. At the heart of the BPF's campaign is the charisma and substantial following of its patron, former president Ian Khama. His return to Botswana following a period of self-imposed exile in South Africa and Eswatini has reinvigorated the party’s presence, especially in the Bagammangwato tribal territory, where his popularity remains high. Shortly after his return, Khama was welcomed like a hero in Serowe, where he announced his intent to return to the Kgotla as Kgosikgolo. His subsequent campaign appearances, including a recent manifesto launch, have centred on a clear message: a desire to see President Mokgweetsi Masisi ousted from power. Khama’s influence is undeniable; his return has galvanised support for the BPF, particularly in constituencies in the northern part of the country, mainly the Gammangwato territory. He has expressed confidence that the party can make significant gains in the upcoming elections, emphasising unity amongst opposition parties against the BDP.
“Even though we have only three weeks left, we can still unite and work with them,” Khama urged BPF members, stressing that the BDP is the common enemy. However, while Khama's support may translate to increased seats in the north, his appeal appears significantly weaker in the southern regions.
Despite his attempts to rally voters in areas like Goodhope-Mmathethe, Molepolole and Kgatleng areas attendance at his campaign events has been lacklustre, suggesting that his message may not resonate as strongly in these constituencies. Political rally attendance serves as a barometer of Khama’s influence. His presence has drawn large crowds in regions like Serowe, Palapye, Tswapong, Mahalapye and Shoshong amongst others where his reputation and historical significance as Sir Seretse Khama's son have captivated many. Conversely, in southern areas, turnout has been disappointing. For instance, Khama’s recent appearances in Goodhope-Mmathethe saw only a handful of supporters, raising concerns about the BPF's ability to compete effectively against the BDP and UDC for state power. As the BPF prepares for the elections, it is essential to consider the implications of Khama's divisive strategy. While he has publicly called for unity amongst opposition factions, his party’s contesting all over the country may inadvertently lead to voter splitting. This could ultimately benefit the BDP, as divided opposition votes may allow them to secure seats they might otherwise lose. Khama’s campaign strategy has involved directly challenging Masisi and the BDP, describing them as corrupt and inept. He accused the ruling party of trying to undermine him, alleging that the Directorate of Intelligence and Security (DIS) has been surveilling him. Such claims resonate with his supporters, but may alienate potential voters who prioritise policy over personality driven politics.
The BPF's traditional stronghold has been in the central part of the country, but as the party seeks to expand its influence southward, challenges persist. Unlike in the 2019 General Election, when they fielded no candidates in the south, the BPF now has a lineup prepared to contest in these areas. Yet, despite this strategic shift, the party’s presence remains feeble compared to its rivals. In the southern constituencies where Khama has campaigned, attendance has been minimal. In these areas, voters seem to have already made up their minds, favouring candidates from the BDP or UDC mostly. Khama's brief meet-and-greet sessions have failed to galvanise significant support, indicating that the BPF must intensify efforts to win over hesitant voters. Moreover, while Khama has focused on critiquing the BDP, he has not sufficiently articulated what the BPF offers to the electorate. This lack of a robust policy platform could hinder the party’s ability to convert Khama's star power into electoral success. As the BPF navigates the final weeks leading up to the elections, it faces the challenge of expanding its appeal beyond Gammangwato.
Khama’s return has undeniably energised the party in certain regions, but the overall electoral strategy needs to address the disparities in voter sentiment across the country. With the BPF contesting in 45 constituencies, having won only three in 2019—the stakes are high. Khama's strategy of direct appeals to voters, coupled with his historical legacy, could serve as a powerful tool if leveraged correctly. However, the party must balance this with a clear message that resonates beyond Khama’s persona. While Khama's return may bolster the BPF’s prospects in the Gammangwato constituencies, it remains crucial for the party to cultivate a comprehensive strategy that addresses the diverse political landscape of Botswana. Failure to do so may result in a fragmented opposition, ultimately benefitting the ruling BDP. The coming weeks will be critical as the BPF strives to solidify its position and challenge the status quo.