Marsh, WEF forecast tough economic decade ahead
Lewanika Timothy | Monday February 26, 2024 06:00
In the Global Risks Report 2024, a survey of business and economic experts from around the world highlighted steep economic hurdles lying ahead for the world in the next 10 years, as a culmination of environmental risks, geopolitical tensions, and the proliferation of multiple information sources. These mounting risks will haunt economies and plunge many into recessions.
The report analyses global risks through three time frames to support decision-makers in balancing current crises and longer-term priorities. Pointing to shocks facing economies in the future, the report revealed that base effects, which were predicted to fall off from the risk outlook perceptions, will have long-bearing effects on long-term horizons.
“The outlook is markedly more negative over the 10-year time horizon, with nearly two-thirds of respondents expecting a stormy or turbulent outlook,” Marsh and WEF said.
“Although globally destabilising consequences such as those seen at the initial outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war or the COVID-19 pandemic were largely avoided, the longer-term outlook for these developments could bring further global shocks.”
Marsh Insurance CEO Carlton McLennan said that the global economy has been standing strong despite past shocks from geopolitical tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic. However, McLennan believes that the prolonged existence of these shocks will bring many economies to their knees.
“The top worry we have for many economies is the growing threat of environmental risks, which are increasingly having larger effects on industries such as agriculture, and these risks are predicted to worsen in the next decade,” he said.
According to McLennan, the findings of the report indicate that environmental risks, misinformation, and the polarisation of society are the three main risks facing the global outlook.
For Botswana, unemployment and inequality have been flagged as the two leading risks with the ability to offset development plans and harm economic prospects into the next decade.
According to the report’s Executive Opinion Survey, which covers the views of over 11,000 business leaders in 113 economies, Botswana’s biggest risks in the next two years include unemployment, inflation, inequality (wealth, income), household debt, and digital inequality.
With offices in more than 130 countries, Marsh is the world’s leading insurance broker and risk advisor. The Global Risk Report, now in its 19th year, is a comprehensive analysis of the most significant risks facing the world today. It provides insights into potential challenges and opportunities for risk leaders in various industries.