Opposition cooperation an uphill battle
Tsaone Basimanebotlhe | Monday December 25, 2023 06:00
The Umbrella for Democratic Change’s (UDC) founding member affiliates are the Botswana National Front (BNF), and Botswana People’s Party (BPP).
Given the significance of political issues during an election season, I have decided to thoroughly examine this topic and ensure that the public is accurately informed about the political landscape.
As a seasoned political reporter, I was able to foresee the breakdown in the relationship between the UDC and the Botswana Congress Party (BCP) which joined the coalition in 2017 and will exit the coalition officially when Parliament dissolves next year.
My insight about the history and dynamics of the UDC and BCP, I was able to correctly anticipate the BCP’s decision to leave UDC. Even though others had been skeptical when cracks started showing, I remained confident in my analysis and ultimately it was proven to be correct.
The BCP’s withdrawal from the UDC has been one of the most important stories of the year, particularly internal conflicts between BCP leader, Dumelang Saleshando, and BNF leader Duma Boko. These conflicts which led to suspensions amongst others kept many Batswana captivated as events unfolded.
Despite attempts by the BCP and BNF to reconcile and make peace, the underlying conflict between the two parties persists and often resurfaces.
The BNF had a split in 1998 which led to the formation of the BCP. The BCP’s withdrawal from the UDC talks in 2012 was not an isolated incident, but rather a reflection of the party’s ongoing discontent with the UDC’s leadership and practices. The BCP has once again left the UDC, this time joining forces with newbie and another BNF splinter party Botswana Labour Party (BLP) in preparation for the coming year. On other hand, the UDC will cooperate with the Alliance for Progressives (AP) and Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF).
Therefore, the BCP’s departure from the UDC and subsequent alliance with the BLP has led to broader concerns about the leadership and conflict resolution abilities of all opposition parties in Botswana. While the UDC has been successful in by-elections, these results do not necessarily predict the outcome of general elections which are influenced by a variety of factors including public opinion. UDC and its partners won 15 by-elections, BDP won four while the BCP managed to finally win one, Lepokole-Borotsi recently. Past elections have shown that split votes harm opposition parties and consequently providing an advantage to the ruling BDP.
If voter apathy continues to be an issue, it could have serious consequences for opposition parties, including decreased support and diminished chances of electoral success. Historically, opposition parties have been more successful when they work together rather than when they are divided, as unity allows them to pool their resources and support to have a greater impact on the electorate. When opposition parties fail to cooperate, some of their sympathizers may feel disheartened and less likely to participate in the electoral process, such as registering to vote or voting on Election Day.
By understanding the opposition parties’ dynamics, the public can make informed decisions and form balanced opinions, ultimately shaping the future of Botswana’s political landscape. The infighting amongst opposition parties has caused them to lose sight of their primary goal of defeating the BDP. Instead of focusing on their messages and platforms, they have been preoccupied with competition amongst themselves, allowing the BDP to focus on promoting its agenda. The failure of the opposition parties to unify and cooperate has led some unaffiliated voters to doubt their commitment and seriousness in pursuing their political goals.
The continued infighting amongst opposition parties has not only made them unreliable but has also brought their internal conflicts to the forefront of attention. Despite repeated warnings from researchers about split votes, the opposition parties have failed to heed their advice and address the underlying issues.
Therefore, the infightings amongst the opposition parties have led to concerns about voter apathy, and it remains to be seen whether Batswana voters will punish all of the opposition parties or gravitate towards one in particular. This will have a significant impact on the outcome of the next election.
The opposition parties’ historical tendency to prioritise internal conflicts over taking action has not been resolved, and it is uncertain whether the 2024 election results will be a wakeup call or further entrench their existing patterns of behaviour. The 2024 election may be a make-or-break moment for the opposition parties either marking a turning point and a new beginning or resulting in their demise. In addition to affecting the future of the opposition parties themselves, the outcome of the 2024 election could lead to a shake-up in the leadership of those parties, as party members lose confidence in their current leaders.
The outcome of general election often triggers a period of self-reflection within political parties, leading to a reassessment of the capabilities and performance of their leaders. After assessing the results of an election, political parties may turn to experts for advice on how to improve their brand and platforms, while some members may decide to leave their parties in search of new political homes. After an election, in addition to changing parties, some people may lose interest in politics altogether and no longer participate in political activities.
The loss of interest in politics following an election can cause a decrease in party membership and a weakening of the party’s local organisation. The loss of interest in politics following an election can cause a decrease in party membership and a weakening of the party’s local organisation. The history of the conflict between the two opposition parties makes it clear that they are unlikely to ever be able to cooperate and unite. The UDC and BCP only cooperated in the 2019 General Election and the relationship became sour since 2021.