Masisi’s ‘non-committal’ global politics on test
Lewanika Timothy | Sunday November 5, 2023 06:00
The SONA encapsulates the President’s account of past promises but most importantly, it privies the First Citizen with a chance to give his opinion on matters of national interest, which ultimately influences policy decisions going forward.
The nuances of the Monday SONA address can only be politically discerned, firstly because it will be the last address the President gives before he caps the red CAVA party cap, where he will have to convince the nation to re-elect him back to office for the second term in the 2024 polls. The nation will not just be listening to an update on matters of national interest, it will be keenly listening and wondering whether this is the captain we want to sail with beyond 2024.
The President is expected to touch base on matters of national interest and update the nation on what he believes to be top policy priorities of his government going to the last lap of the electoral year. One of such priorities that the nation will expect the President to address is Botswana’s vivid foreign policy stance on ongoing geo-political tensions. The international community has been treading on rocky ground with political tension lingering in the atmosphere of all corners of the world, bringing the world to the brink of a global war. Botswana as a country is known for its dodgy foreign policy stance when it comes to matters of global politics with Masis’s predecessors having played it safe by just keeping away when the elephants in international politics tussle.
As the world splinters and different countries pledge their allegiance to either the West or East, it will not be politically feasible for Botswana to hide behind an undocumented foreign policy stance, hiding in the shadows and avoiding stepping on the giant’s toes. In 2022, Russia used military force to invade Ukraine in an attempt to annex part of Ukrainian territory, a move which some political analysts believed was a war against American interests.
When the war broke, Botswana through a United Nations vote on the war, stood behind the United States of America to condemn Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, a move which ruffled some feathers leaving Russia politically displeased with Botswana.
This is the war that has caused the nation a great ordeal, as it is behind rising food prices, high-interest rates and food supply shortages.
The President will not have the luxury of pessimistically bypassing the Ukraine war because of the toll it has taken on the country’s economy. Before him is the choice to publicly condemn the war and risk losing economic ties with Russia and pleasing America or ignoring it, throwing the nation in limbo.
In 2022, when Masisi had the chance to publicly condemn the Russia/Ukraine war while delivering the SONA, he shied away from it, speaking more on its impacts than Botswana’s position like other countries in the global community did.
“The global economy has been slowly recovering from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the Russia/Ukraine war is undermining this progress,” he said.
When delivering the SONA, the presidential fly space is not restricted to any formal outline but there are key issues that the nation always has in mind and demands that their leader covers and speaks to.
The closest the nation has gotten to having a leader who shot from the hip was under former president Ian Khama’s administration, who was fond of calling out counterparts like former president Joseph Kabila of the DRC and former president Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe but he too often restricted himself to opponents that were within his punching weight.
It is not just about the Russia/Ukraine war, it is also about the culmination of the breaking of the war between Israel and Palestine that has forced the hand of nations to align with either of the two contenders of global power, with Russia and Iran standing in the sidelines routing for Palestine while America rallies behind Israel.
President Masisi’s comments on Monday should he develop the boldness to state Botswana’s stance will depict the country’s direction. Before commenting, the President is tasked with considering which hand feeds Botswana more, who is Botswana’s most strategic trade partner and who will the nation not risk displeasing.
Going along with trade patterns and military support, the decision has already been made for Botswana, the task ahead of the President will either be to choose to play it safe or be outright about the nation’s foreign policy stance, which the nation surely wants to know. Regionally, President Masisi is faced with a skewed regional institution that oscillates trade benefits to neighbouring South Africa to the detriment of Botswana.
Botswana’s revenues from the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) have been on a nosedive, with South Africa’s revenue collection muscling close to 50% of revenues accrued leaving the remaining member states to tussle for what remains, adversely affecting inflows to government coffers.
South Africa has been thriving economically with Botswana as its secondary market, with issues of dumping of inferior goods such as Japanese cars and retail products finding themselves to Batswana consumers through the South African borders.
A trade pattern that has not been sitting well with President Masisi who expressed how he detested the situation to President Cyril Ramaphosa’s eyes during a business roundtable last year.
“According to our Statistics office, Botswana has over these 28 years, experienced negative trade balances with South Africa, the negative trade balances run into the negative of billions of pula for each year.
Between 2017 and 2021, Botswana exported goods worth P31 billion, while it imported goods worth P200 billion. This means that on average, we are importing P42 billion and exporting P6 billion worth of goods per annum,” he said.
These are all matters of national interest the nation will be eager to know what the President intends to do going forward. Previously, the government imposed trade bans on vegetable imports from South Africa to try and restore equilibrium to the trade pattern but the trade war remains foggy.
President Masisi has in the past looked towards Namibia for alternative sea routes exploring trade relations away from South Africa, which has had souring political relations with Botswana. Dating back to the P100 billion corruption saga case, where South Africa refused to entertain Botswana’s claims that money had been siphoned to South African bank accounts away from government coffers, a claim that the South African government denied and dismissed.
The seeking of asylum of former President, Khama and his family members on South African soil, also points to the political subtle tension that exists between the two neighbouring countries and on Monday the President will have to shape the context of Botswana’s undocumented foreign policy, which is unbeknown to many Batswana.
Political science lecturer at the University of Botswana Dr Leonard Sesa believes that the President will stay away from commenting blatantly on global politics because of the danger and risk involved with choosing to expose Botswana’s stance “I don’t think the President will share much on issues of global politics, he will largely concern himself with matters of national interest happening in the country because of fears of offending international powers.
Luckily for him, he can hide behind an undocumented foreign policy stance,” he said.