Opposition’s elusive target

Ryder Gabathuse | Monday October 23, 2023 06:00

In Botswana, the opposition has been failing to carry the hopes of the people by unseating the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) from the seat of power since 57 years ago. Botswana’s opposition parties have been largely struggling to put together a robust persuasive recipe to oust the ruling BDP from power through the polls.

It is now 57 years since Botswana attained her independence in 1966 and it does not seem the opposition is going to turn the tables any time soon especially since total unity has been an elusive opposition project from the time of the founding fathers of opposition, the late Dr Kenneth Koma of the Botswana National Front (BNF) and others.

Next year, Botswana goes to the polls for the 13th time and the ruling party is obviously not gripped by fear of losing the elections, as it seems there is no credible challenge to shake them up. It is the same old opposition story of fighting each other, leaving the main target, the BDP, to run away with the polls.

The opposition has itself to blame for failing to unite against the ruling party whose strength has been solid even when it is not at its best. For the longest time, the BDP was gripped by factionalism that threatened to put it asunder but come election year, the opposition will disappoint as it oftentimes gets even more fragmented to give the ruling party a run for its money.

Instead of facing the ruling party, the opposition will choose to go for each other’s throats, tearing each other apart and then dragging itself into the general polls. In most cases, the opposition parties will go on a smear campaign, assassinating the characters of some of their own with their rather mudslinging tendencies.

Batswana are thirsty for change, but they are not ready to settle for anything less than a credible alternative to the BDP.

In the 2014 General Election, the presidency of Ian Khama (fourth president) was tainted by accusations of his ‘autocratic’ tendencies, which left the ruling party less appealing.

The BDP challenges were even mirrored by the party’s poor showing in the national polls with a plummeted popular vote of 46.45% from a strong showing in the previous elections when they garnered 53% in 2009, still under the stewardship of Khama in his first term in office.

A lot had happened during Khama’s presidency including the formation of a new party, the Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD) in 2010, which was birthed after a party faction, Barata Phathi had morphed into a political organisation, running away from Khama’s intolerance of divergent views in the ruling party.

This follows the expulsion of one of the Barata Phathi’s factional leaders, Gomolemo Motswaledi, who faced disciplinary charges in the BDP before he went to court and was later expelled. A good number of his supporters followed him out of the BDP to form a new party although some would later return to the BDP. The BMD founder and charismatic leader would later perish in a controversial car accident that set tongues wagging. If the opposition was united in the 2014 General Election, they could have tilted the scales and taught the BDP a good political lesson, with an over 50% popular vote. The UDC, under its current president Duma Boko, had garnered 30.01% whilst the BCP led by Dumelang Saleshando had polled 20.43%. Unfortunately, in the First-Past-The Post, the opposition’s good performance did not translate into majority seats, which could have given them a ‘coalition’ government at least.

The BDP won 37 seats, UDC 17 seats and the BCP three seats, which possibly left the opposition with regrets as they had punished themselves with their usual fragmentation tendencies.

After every election year, the opposition struggles to explain its story better to the masses and rather it has been passing the buck and blaming this and that for its failed attempts to take over the elusive power. Claims of rigging by the ruling BDP have been abound.

The usually fragmented opposition went into the 2019 General Election ‘united’ but the performance was not convincing enough as the UDC under Boko got a lower popular vote of 35.88%. Coalition partners that contested under the guise of the UDC included the BCP, the BNF and the Botswana Peoples Party (BPP). The newly formed Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) participated in the elections outside the UDC, although it made several assists mainly in the Central District of Botswana where Khama was very popular as the patron of the party and its chief campaigner.

The Alliance for Progressives (AP) was not part of the opposition coalition also. The two parties garnered 4.41% (BPF) and 5.12% (AP) in popular vote respectively. The splitting of the votes by the opposition was not even helpful as their performance added together was still below 50%.

The worst thing to happen was the exit of the BCP from the coalition a few years after the last polls claiming the absence of inner democracy in the opposition coalition led by Boko. Unless a political miracle happens, the BCP is ready to participate in the 2024 polls as a single entity further splitting opposition votes.

In his academic paper contributed to the African Journal of Politics and published in 2015, University of Botswana (UB) political scientist, Dr Kebapetse Lotshwao wrote that Botswana’s democracy is characterised by the dominance of the BDP and the weakness of opposition parties. He said, due to its weakness, “the opposition has failed to unseat the BDP, let alone significantly threaten to supplant it.

“...Several justifications have been advanced to explain the opposition’s weakness and its subsequent failure to win power. These include lack of strategy and ideological weaknesses relative to the BDP, factionalism and fragmentation resulting in vote splitting, the first past the post electoral system which advantages the incumbent party as well as lack of campaign resources in the absence of State funding of political parties in Botswana,” reads Lotshwao’s paper.

He added: “...Destructive factionalism, recurring splits and lack of strategy are indeed reflections of poor leadership. With poor leadership, the opposition might still not benefit significantly from electoral reforms and the introduction of party funding. Over the years, poor leadership in the BNF manifested itself in the leadership’s failure to preserve organisational unity.”

In another journal article authored by Dr Onalenna Selolwane, she indicated that Botswana’s opposition parties are accountable for their failure to provide the voting public with a meaningful alternative to the ruling BDP. Whilst conceding the explanatory importance of other factors such as resource capacity, Selolwane’s paper departed from conventional wisdom by focusing on the strategic and ideological weaknesses of the opposition parties.

“...The opposition parties made a number of strategic errors which rendered them electorally unattractive before they could establish their legitimacy as contenders for government power,” reads an abstract for Selolwane’s journal paper entitled: “Monopoly politikos: How Botswana’s opposition parties have helped sustain one-party dominance”.

She further argued that to break the monopoly of power that the ruling party has so far enjoyed, Botswana’s opposition must transform itself into a meaningful competitor and government-in-waiting.

Quizzed about the opposition strength that he thinks can help them win the polls next year, University of Botswana political and administrative lecturer, Adam Mfundisi said: “The opposition parties need to apply themselves on the BDP in all fronts - Parliament, media, rallies, and public fora. They have the talent and the skills, knowledge and abilities to expose corruption and maladministration. The BDP’s strength is in the Presidency and therefore the opposition must expose his pathologies such as pathological lying, specious promises, lack of character, alleged corruption and maladministration and unpalatable words in the public arena. They should expose his abuse of public office through conflict of interests, nepotism, unethical and unaccountable behaviour. Moreover, socio-economic and political woes must be articulated and blamed on.

On the issue of fragmented opposition, Mfundisi has a different perspective in terms of pluralistic politics.

He feels that opposition unity must be anchored on democratic ideals, good governance, rule of law, ethics and accountability.

In addition, he said coalition politics must be premised on clear vision and development amongst others rather than convenience. “In a democratic system,” he explained and added, “voters should have a wider choice within which to choose the best candidate. This enhances voter turnout thereby consolidating our democracy. To promote competitive elections, the playing field must be levelled through equitable treatment of all parties”. He worriedly noted that currently, the BDP dominates the political space by being funded by government through both overt and covert means.

Moreover, the UB academic indicated that the electoral process and administration must deliver free and fair elections. His view is that the IEC should be independent and autonomous of the State and government.

“The abuse and misuse of State power by the BDP regime to win elections should be stopped at all costs. Political corruption is pervasive, corrosive and cancerous and therefore, should be uprooted from our politics,” he said.

He pointed out that in the 2019 polls, the President dissolved Parliament and he and his Ministers exploited the kgotla system to campaign clandestinely.

Mfundisi’s position is that secrecy breeds corruption as the BDP and the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) were not transparent in terms of registration and voting processes.

He is adamant that opposition parties are doing everything possible to win elections but the BDP has cemented its dominance through State power.

He observed that the ruling party has constitutional and legal power to influence and manipulate the electoral outcomes.

“The President enjoys Executive power, which has a bearing on electoral administration. The 2024 General Election should be premised on free and fair elections devoid of State interference and manipulation,” posited Mfundisi.His ardent appeal is that the political playing field should be levelled to allow voters’ will to be upheld.

Another UB academic, Kekgaoditse Suping, politics and international relations lecturer, was quick to explain that opposition strength lies in their unity, stressing that in the absence of that as is the case now, prospects of providing a challenge to the BDP are slim.

He, however, indicated that although fragmented, opposition stands a chance to win some constituencies that were their traditional strongholds prior to the 2019 General Election.

“I don’t think there was vote rigging in the last polls, if there was, it was minute to warrant such a cry. In my view, the UDC lost even in its stronghold because of aligning with former president, Khama,” he said.

“Some Batswana were not happy with former president’s administration as is evidenced by a sharp drop in the BDP popular vote in the 2014 General Election. Therefore, in 2019 people cast a protest vote in favour of the BDP, which was not necessarily their favourite,” he added.

In summation, Suping noted that the opposition was seemingly not doing enough to unite, which is one of the things that can convince voters to vote them as an alternative to the BDP.