The battle for the South- (Part II)
Ryder Gabathuse | Monday October 23, 2023 06:00
The passing of the baton of power to President Mokgweetsi Masisi by his predecessor Ian Khama in 2018, anointing his then favourite (Masisi) as the fifth State President has seemingly been an undisputable game changer in the party’s north-south political divide.
The succession must have energised the southern region to welcome the newly anointed taskmaster with a vote of approval. For the longest time, the ruling party has not been performing so well in the constituencies south of the Dibete cordon fence, leaving the areas a natural stronghold for the opposition and in particular, the Botswana National Front (BNF) of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC).
But the appointment of Masisi, who himself hails from the southern part of the country, seems to have appeased the people who in return embraced him in his first term proper in office just like it is the case with his predecessors. The sitting President’s first term in office is the best before people pick issues with the incumbent.
President Masisi in particular, exploited the goodwill shown by the people on the new administration after two decades of Khama’s (mis) rule, which was characterised by ‘authoritarian’ leadership. Additionally, Masisi exercised the Executive powers vested on him by the Constitution to the maximum and attracted support from voters.
Just when the BDP was tormented by its dwindling fortunes, Masisi came in as a saving grace. In his last term, former president Ian Khama experienced a disquieting plummet in the party’s popular vote as depicted by the results of the 2014 General Election in which the BDP won the polls by garnering 46.45% as its popular vote against the opposition that was breathing fire on the ruling party’s neck, fragmented as it was.
Khama had, however, performed well in his first term despite challenges recorded at a time of his ascension (2008), most importantly the 2009 (the year of the polls) global economic meltdown and later the first break up of the BDP in 2010, which saw a faction of the party known as Barata Phathi morphing into a political party known as the Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD). Some of the founders of the BMD and their supporters would, however, later return to the BDP.
The 2019 General Election results with Masisi as the party steward depict a shift in allegiance in the country’s powerful political regions (north and south).
A lot has happened when Masisi took over the reigns of power including a historic break up with Khama that culminated into acts of hatred between the former allies. Allegations and counter allegations of the source of acrimony between the duo has been thrown into the public domain, but still the real cause of the break up remains unclear. The nation is still holding its breath waiting for the day; President Masisi will tell the real story of what broke the camel’s back after he promised to break the story and chose to withhold it until Khama went into self-imposed exile in South Africa, a first for a sitting president in Botswana.
During the era of former president Khama, who hails from Serowe in the Central District, the majority of the constituencies north of the Dibete cordon fence were BDP’s unshakeable strongholds up until 2019 after a historic fall out. Khama would then resign from the BDP in support of a new party called the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF), which he is a patron.
As a result, Khama successfully fought his former party, succeeding in banishing it from its traditional strongholds of Shoshong, Palapye, Serowe, Bobonong, Tswapong and other areas in the north. Now, the whole thing looks like a case of the people following its leader.
During Khama’s two five-year terms as the helmsman at both the party and State, the BDP’s strongholds followed their leader in the north. In his first term (2009 polls) Khama led the BDP to victory via a popular vote of 53%, the BNF led by Otweletse Moupo got 21.94% whilst Gilson Saleshando of the Botswana Congress Party (BCP) got 19.15%.
In his second and last term during the 2014 General Election, Khama led the BDP to another victory with a shrunken popular vote of less than 50% at about 46.45%, which was the party’s worst ever performance. The UDC came second via 30.01% whilst the BCP trailed via 20.43%. But, still the BDP relied on the northern constituencies to retain overall power.
In the 2019 General Election, the BDP performed poorly in the north of Dibete chiefly because of the political confusion following the formation of a splinter party, the BPF that Khama personally sponsored to oust the BDP. Khama’s party made several assists in the areas they did not have candidates in their endeavour to wipe out the BDP from its traditional strongholds.
Despite the opposition’s good performance in the north, President Masisi attracted more votes from his region putting the political game beyond the reach of his opponents.
After a poor showing in the previous polls, Masisi’s first term managed to improve on the party’s popular vote by rising to 52.65% from Khama’s second term in which the party had won by a shaky below 50% popular vote.
Advocate Duma Boko was a frustrated man as his powerful campaigns could not yield victory as he only got a popular vote of 35.88%, followed by Alliance for Progressives (AP) led by Ndaba Gaolathe with a popular vote of 5.12% whilst Khama’s BPF trailed via 4.41%. But, worriedly, there seems to be a trend that the BDP will hate in which the second term of its leaders have proven a struggle in terms of the popular vote. In his second term in office, former president Festus Mogae whose two-year terms were dogged by tensions within the party as factionalism was at its all time high. In 2004, Mogae won his second term with a staggering 51.73% followed by the BNF led by Otsweletse Moupo via 26.06% whilst Michael Dingake of the BCP trailed with 16.62%. In his first term in 1999, Mogae, who enjoyed a backing of all the party’s regions with a much stronger backing in the Central District polled a strong 57.15% followed by Dr Kenneth Koma of the BNF with 25.95% whilst Michael Dingake of the BCP got 11.90%. For former president Sir Ketumile Masire’s five-year four terms, his was a strong regional balance, but still there was a semblance of a party struggling to completely come together in both regions. Masire posted strong popular votes between 1984 and 1994.
In 1984, the BDP won the elections with a popular vote of 68.00% under Masire followed by Koma of the BNF who got 20.44% whilst Dr Knight Maripe of the Botswana Peoples Party (BPP) got 6.57%. In the 1989 polls, Masire got a lower popular vote of 64.78% whilst Koma of the BNF got 26.95%. In the 1994 General Election, Masire led the BDP to victory after garnering a popular vote of 54.72% whilst Koma representing the BNF got 36.94%. The country’s founding president Sir Seretse Khama during the 1969 General Election, fresh from attaining the country’s independence from the United Kingdom in 1966, led his party to victory via 68.21%, Bathoen Gaseitsiwe of the BNF got 13.60%, Phillip Matante of the BPP got 12.90% and Motsamai Mpho of Botswana Independence Party (BIP) got 6.00%.
In 1974, Sir Seretse Khama hit 76.62% popular vote for the BDP, Gaseitsiwe of the BNF got 11.49%, Matante of the BPP got 6.56% whilst Mpho got 4.82% under the BIP ticket. In 1979 Sir Seretse Khama got 75.17%, Koma got 13% whilst Matante got 7.42% of popular vote.
During the Bechuanaland era, the country held general election in 1965 in which Sir Seretse Khama’s party, Bechuanaland Democratic Party (BDP) garnered 80.38% popular vote followed by Matante’s BPP with a 14.18%. It is apparent that in the last polls, the BDP and its President extensively exploited their incumbency positions to win the elections.
University of Botswana (UB) politics and international relations lecturer, Kekgaoditse Suping, feels for quite sometime, the southern part of the country saw an opportunity for the south to fill in someone as the president from their side. This is because the northern part of the country had previously produced two presidents in a row. In his analysis, he feels the 2019 General Election results were simply rejection votes in that somehow, there was a sentiment that the southerners did not want anything to do with former president, Khama, from across the political divide. “They felt that they were UDC, but because Khama was associated with the former, they rejected the UDC for those reasons,” Suping told Mmegi.
He explained that in the 2014 General Election when Khama was in his second term as the party and State president, the opposition performed very well but unfortunately, they were also fragmented which could not help their cause. The BDP then had garnered 46.45% whilst the UDC registered 30.01% votes and the BCP got 20.43% of the popular vote.
“The incoming president raises high hopes of people but unfortunately, fails to deliver on their promises and expectations. They usually find very few fulfilments in their promises after failing to deliver on a good number of promises,” he noted. In the case of President Masisi, Suping indicated that his promise was to consult widely on pertinent national issues as he promised to do with the media, labour organisations and others, but it does not seem there were any benefits accrued from such interactions. Another UB academic and political and administrative studies lecturer, Adam Mfundisi says the President, mobilised State assets to campaign for the BDP. He cited political patronage and client list networks, which were used to woo voters. The sacred public forum (Kgotla system), he noted, was used intensively up to the D-Day of the elections.
Mfundisi conceded that President Masisi exploited the lacuna in political representatives, in particular, in opposition dominated areas to campaign unhindered through the Kgotla forum. “Political statements were made under the guise of national issues. Abuse of political office was evident in that the President would address people at the Kgotla in the morning and public rally in the afternoon. “Similar messages were articulated buttressing the accusation of abuse and misuse of State power for political capital,” Mfundisi told Mmegi this week. He stressed, “political corruption flourished during the last polls. Other issues relate to the voting process where there were serious allegations of malpractices perpetuated by the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) and its officials.
“A marathon of election petitions reflects the problems that had befallen the polls”.
Nicole Beardsworth is a South African and a lecturer in politics at the University of the Witwatersrand and an honorary research fellow in politics and international studies. She wrote about six years ago that incumbents win elections in Africa. Her position is that incumbents win more often due to the ‘incumbency effect’ – presidents can bend State institutions in their favour, frequently securing positive coverage in the public media, they use patronage and positions to buy loyalty, and they are able to introduce popular (or populist) policies to consolidate the ruling party’s vote base. In many cases, the president is also able to use State resources to campaign in the elections, severely skewing the playing field in their favour.
In last week’s interview, BDP spokesperson Kagelelo Kentse oozed confidence that his party will get into the 2024 elections to win all the 61 constituencies, something that has never happened in the history of the country. He stated: “We do not separate or treat them as South or North. So we have an overall strategy to retain those that we got in 2019 and win others that are under the opposition“.
He said the BDP’s best strategy remains the delivery of their 2019 manifesto promises. So next year, stressed Kentse, Batswana will be able to appraise them and see the marvellous work the BDP government has done and, “we are confident they will return us to governing especially with the mickey mouse the opposition has become.” Quizzed in a recent interview if they will make a comeback in the south of the country, after raising concerns about election rigging, the UDC spokesperson, Moeti Mohwasa was quick to say: “Predominantly in the south, the people created Madibela-thopho structures. Later the UDC inherited this initiative, which was a spontaneous response by the people to elections rigging. This will perfect the situation as the people are now taking control to ensure compliance with the law”. He added: “In short, our performance will be determined by how we do in terms of ensuring that there is no rigging in the 2024 General Election”.