The battle for the south

Ryder Gabathuse | Monday October 16, 2023 06:00

For many years, the opposition was popular in Gaborone and surrounding urban places and major villages with the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) playing second fiddle including in other urban centres.

The Botswana National Front (BNF), the main party in the UDC coalition partnership, had enjoyed great support in Gaborone’s constituencies of Gaborone Bonnington North, Gaborone Bonnington South, Gaborone Central, Gaborone North and Gaborone South. At some stage, the BNF was popular in the neighbouring Kgatleng constituencies, Molepolole, Kanye, Lobatse, including Jwaneng-Mabutsane and others. There was a time when the BNF was also in control of councils in the urban areas in the south, in particular. The BNF as an entity had strong structures in the majority of the areas in the southern part of the country than it was the case in the north of Dibete cordon fence. In fact, the BNF’s major split in 1998 that birthed the Botswana Congress Party (BCP) after a party tumultuous event in Palapye weakened the BNF structures in the north of Dibete creating an imbalance in the party presence as the party leadership seemingly concentrated their efforts in the south. Now, with the 2019 General Election results literally wiping the BNF off from the southern territory, the party was left with no stronghold after all.



In the 2019 General Election, the UDC performed poorly so much that it lost everything that it ever had before to the extent that the coalition had to unsuccessfully approach the court of law petitioning results of the elections citing irregularities. These were part of the constituencies south of the Dibete cordon fence, which were apparently allocated to the BNF of the UDC. The UDC cried foul that the ruling BDP had ‘stolen’ the polls through systematic rigging, the claims the party was unable to substantiate. Notwithstanding the 2019 losses, the UDC came stronger in council by-elections across the country, winning about 80% of the run by-elections. This has heightened hope for the UDC recovery in next year’s polls.

Now, a big question is what is the UDC offering that can turn the tables from the poor performance in 2019 to a comeback in the 2024 polls?

But the UDC spokesperson, Moeti Mohwasa, does not want to believe the BNF and the UDC have been dealt a death blow post the 2019 General Election.

“The UDC as a national project has a footprint throughout the country. We have a following right across the country as the outcome of the by-elections held between the 2019 General Election and now show after the 2019 General Election where there was a heist conducted by the BDP and the Directorate of Intelligence and Security”, explained Mohwasa.

He added: “Predominantly in the south, the people created Madibela-thopho structures. Later the UDC inherited this initiative, which was a spontaneous response by the people to elections rigging. This will perfect the situation as the people are now taking control to ensure compliance with the law”.

When quizzed if the UDC will make a comeback in the impending 2024 General Election, Mohwasa’s further explanation was that, “in short, our performance will be determined by how we do in terms of ensuring that there is no rigging in the 2024 General Election.”

In all their recent party meetings, the BDP leader and State President Mokgweetsi Masisi and his lieutenants, Vice President Slumber Tsogwane and secretary-general Kavis Kario were adamant that they are going to retain power in 2024. One of their targets is to improve on the nearly 53% of the party’s popular vote from 2019 polls.

“We have another opportunity to do much better in 2024. We have a difference that we need to preserve as the BDP. This will attract people to our party, as we are different. Let people see that difference and let the demographics see that difference,” Tsogwane emphasised his party’s determination to win come 2024 at Palapye’s 59th party national council and extra-ordinary congress.

To the BDP, victory is certain and that is partly attributable to the opposition differences that have resulted in the Botswana Congress Party (BCP), a key member of the UDC, vacating the coalition recently claiming the UDC leader Duma Boko’s unilateralism tendencies.

BDP spokesperson Kagelelo Kentse was elated that his party will get into the 2024 elections to win all the 61 constituencies. He stated: “We do not separate or treat them as South or North. So we have an overall strategy to retain those that we got in 2019 and win others that are under the opposition“.

He said the BDP’s best strategy remains the delivery of their 2019 manifesto promises. So next year, stressed Kentse, Batswana will be able to appraise them and see the marvelous work the BDP government has done and, “we are confident they will return us to governing especially with the mickey mouse the opposition has become.” University of Botswana (UB) lecturer in political and administrative studies, Adam Mfundisi is adamant that the UDC can only bounce back in the southern part of the country if the structures of the BNF of the UDC are up and working.

“Remember the BNF was allocated most of the constituencies in the south of the country. I don’t think the BNF’s strength can really help the UDC bounce back unless they can simply out do themselves,” highlighted Mfundisi.

He said the BNF has to convince that it is a strong political organisation capable of reversing the 2019 loss. He, however, indicated that the BDP could be dethroned because the masses are yearning for change.

“President Mokgweetsi Masisi continues to make promises that his government cannot deliver at anytime. He says just anything without the intention of delivering,” he said adding that the ruling party is not solid at all as its leadership is not people-oriented.

He cited the biting effect of the economic hardship as a serious turn off to the people that now do not see the benefit of voting for the BDP anymore.

“Despite that the UDC is not solid in the south of the country now, they might, however, win some of the constituencies they lost to the BDP because people are disillusioned with the BDP misrule,” Mfundisi told Mmegi in an interview.

He stressed that generally people are dissatisfied with the running of government and the attitude of the party leadership. He further indicated that people’s lives are deteriorating instead of getting better and this has been a concern to many people.