Output plunges at Mosisedi; farmers brace for El Nino
Mbongeni Mguni | Monday August 28, 2023 06:00
For commercial farmers in the Mosisedi area, their troubles with the 2022–2023 season began with the rainfall forecast going awry. Last September, the Department of Meteorological Services had forecast “a moderately wet season over the entire country,” with nearly all areas enjoying normal to above normal rainfall.
The now frequent and troublesome mid-season dry spell, which occurs in January, was expected and did occur. What wasn’t expected was its duration – 21 days – and the fact that another 12-day spell hit in March, effectively undoing whatever strategies farmers had put in place to squeeze out a good harvest.
For the Mosisedi Commercial Farmers Association, the impact was worse.
“The previous 2021–2022 season was a drought year and so when we heard normal to above normal, we tried to improve on inputs even though prices of inputs such as fertiliser, diesel and seeds were far much higher,” the association’s secretary, Duncan Ramooki told Mmegi. “As the season began, it rained well up to December and as farmers, we knew that there would be a heatwave in January.
“If you’ve planted three-month maize that flowers in January, it needs rain and it can suffer with that heatwave.
“Farmers thought they would get something but in January the rains stopped completely and crops failed.”
The challenge farmers have with the mid-season dry spell is that its duration and intensity are difficult to forecast. Thanks largely to climate change, the dry spell is now a regular feature of the rain season and it wreaks havoc on farmers’ cropping plans. Those who plant after the first rains in November get caught out if the mid-season dry spell lasts too long. Those who wait and plant after the dry spell, risk frost damage by April or another dry spell. Last season, a 12-day dry spell hit the country in March, upending whatever carefully devised plans farmers had made.
As commercial farmers, the scale of any troubles at Mosisedi is grand, when compared to subsistence or communal farmers. The 18 farmers in the area have 10,000 hectares or 100 square kilometres between them, but due to the haphazard rainfall, only 3,000 hectares were farmed last season.
In the recent harvest, the fields produced one tonne or 20 bags per hectare of maize, instead of the targeted three tonnes or 60 bags per hectare that farmers enjoy in standard years. A bag is 50 kilogrammes.
Going into the season, fortified by the forecasts, farmers borrowed from the National Development Bank (NDB), CEDA and other financiers. Ramooki said for a 200-hectare plot, the investment required each season could reach P1 million. This season, however, the plot only yielded P400,000.
Late last month, President Mokgweetsi Masisi declared the 2022–2023 season a severe arable agricultural drought year, announcing various interventions for farmers including livestock feed subsidies, partial bank loan guarantees and nutritional support. Under the interventions, government will cover 40% of the loans farmers such as those in Mosisedi took out for the 2022–2023 season.
“Farmers are not going to cope; at least if it was 50% or 60%,” Ramooki said.
“At Mmegi you are going to see more farms being sold In the Matter Between.
“Remember that a seasonal loan is not like a loan for machinery. You have to pay it back quickly and that is an issue.”
Going into the 2023–2024 season, Mosisedi farmers are concerned that the new Temo Letlotlo programme, which replaces ISPAAD, has not been explained to them. Government has said the new programme will be targeted at commercialising agriculture in the country, but precious few details have been shared on how different types of farmers will be affected.
With the new season looming, Ramooki said the uncertainty was an additional burden.
“We don’t know what Temo Letlotlo is going to look like,” he told Mmegi.
“We have been getting a subsidy of 30% as commercial farmers for inputs, but we have not heard what Temo Letlotlo will bring or how it will affect the monies from NDB and others.
“Nothing is clear but we are going into September and Meteorological Services are going to release their rainfall forecast very soon.”
Besides the changes that will come with Temo Letlotlo, Mosisedi farmers are also wary of reports that El Niño will make a return to local skies this year, bringing along with it, heatwaves and longer dry spells. The Mosisedi area is one of the country’s prime zones for maize, a crop that is highly sensitive to moisture loss, regardless of the variety.
This season, Ramooki expects that farmers will have to drastically change their plans, but again, much is riding on what Temo Letlotlo will look like.
“We could already be looking for what to plant, because most of the seeds come from outside the country.
“We will have to go back to the drought-resistant crops such as sunflower, groundnuts, legumes and others but the market is not always good.
“With groundnuts in particular, government used to pay P700 per bag and we could afford to pay workers, but now it’s P400, while workers have not reduced their wages.
“Even with sunflower, the marketing board is buying it at P4,500 per tonne, while selling it at P10,000 per tonne.
“With sugar beans, which are required in schools and clinics, the marketing board pays P600 per bag, but those who tender for the schools and clinics are selling it for P1,500 to government.”
With El Niño looming, the options are limited for Mosisedi farmers. Those who opt for sorghum, a sturdier cereal than maize in terms of rain requirement, run the risk of losing their entire fields to the notorious quelea bird.
“The quelea can eat 100 hectares a day,” Ramooki said.
“In Pandamatenga, they use drones and other methods to control them that we cannot on our end.”