BDP’s back against the wall
Ryder Gabathuse | Friday July 7, 2023 14:29
Up to now, the BDP cannot easily come to terms with its poor performance in the past 17 ward by-elections whereupon the marauding opposition led by the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) won 13 wards whilst the ruling party won only four. Now, with the 18th and first Parliamentary seat by-election tomorrow, pressure is on the BDP camp. The party has previously blamed everything from the impact of COVID-19 to societal ills be-devilling the country and more for its incessant losses.
The weekend by-election might expose the ruling party’s political weaknesses and ill-preparedness especially after its long absence from the conservative Serowe West constituency. With a moniker of ‘Kwa Kgosing’, the Serowe West constituency comes across as an area very close to the Bangwato royal house and seems most treasured by the tribe.
Even when the ruling BDP was in control of the Serowe constituencies before the advent of the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF), the BDP was untouchable in Serowe. Now, it seems tables have turned against the BDP. The party’s daunting task is to further turn the tables in its favour, which will also test the Khama magic attributable to the party’s good performance before he left the BDP.
Before his escape to neighbouring South Africa, where he is on self-imposed exile, former president Ian Khama who is also the chief of Bangwato, accused the regime of President Mokgweetsi Masisi of ‘harassing’ him and the rest of his family members. This has since set the ruling BDP on a collision course with the tribe.
This development means the President Masisi-led BDP is going into the by-election with its back against the wall. The party has a mountain to climb in the crucial weekend by-election that pits the once mighty BDP and its splinter BPF. The BPF seemingly has a tribal appeal as villagers try to empathise with the beleaguered Khama family.
Until the 2019 General Election, the Serowe West constituency was one of the BDP’s unshakeable headlocks. Infact, the BDP had never had any party getting closer to shaking it from one of its then safest seats until the moment the BPF was formed just on the verge of the last polls that saw the BDP troubles starting. The party fortunes have also been taking a downward trajectory.
For instance, in 1998 when former president Festus Mogae assumed presidency, he chose Khama (Ian) as his vice president. As a way of creating a constituency for Khama, as he could not be the vice president without one, Mogae sacrificed the then area MP Roy Blackbeard and appointed him as a High Commissioner in the UK. The risk was worth taking because the BDP was very intact at the time and the party would later convincingly win the constituency in a by-election.
Even when Ian ascended to the presidency in 2008 creating a vacancy in Serowe West, the party candidate and his brother, Tshekedi never disappointed in a by-election. The BDP easily sailed to victory. It was not more about the candidate, but the party that contested mattered a lot to the electorate.
At the 2019 polls, just 53 years of the BDP dominance of the constituency, the story was simply re-written by the newcomer, the BPF. Tshekedi of the BPF garnered 4,394 votes to win the Serowe West parliamentary seat. The BDP’s Moemedi Dijeng came second via 2,405 votes. Rolent Gambule and Leremela Bogosing of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) and the Alliance for Progressives polled 749 and 387 votes respectively.
A summary of statistics at the last polls shows that about 9,829 people had registered for the elections and there were 7,935 valid votes cast, 256 rejected , 8,191 total votes cast and 1,989 win margin with an 83% voter turn-out. The figures are likely to change due to the influence of voter registration.
The Serowe West constituency by-election came as a result of a vacancy created by the former elected legislator Tshekedi’s failure to attend three consecutive Parliament meetings. He is currently on self-imposed exile in South Africa with his family following tussles with the Directorate of Intelligence and Security (DIS).
After losing the constituency to the BPF, the BDP failed to mount a serious comeback ahead of the 2024 General Election, seemingly surrendering the constituency to the new party.
After absenting itself from Serowe following defeat during the 2019 General Election, the ruling party leadership seemed more immersed in the President Masisi-Khama feuding which has seemingly weakened their political activities in the constituency. There seemed to be no deliberate plan to recapture Serowe and the vast Central District, which is alleged to be sympathetic to the BPF.
The by-election has come at a bad time for the BDP; at a time when they were still planning their come-back strategies before they moved into action ahead of the 2024 polls.
There is no doubt that the BDP bigwigs might have slept on the job instead of launching a political offensive that might be turning the tables against their nemesis.
President Masisi as the party leader is the BDP chief campaigner and no doubt he is endowed with the gift of the garb that he has unfortunately been employing elsewhere. He recently spent time on scolding De Beers in the just ended diamond talks with his government whilst his party watched a match in Serowe to its detriment now.
The situation is not helped by the fact that even the Vice President, Slumber Tsogwane who is also the party chairperson, has not been effective on selling the story of the BDP to the hostile tribe in Serowe and its environs. Coupled with that, the secretary-general, Kavis Kario who is in charge of the party secretariat amongst others, has not done enough to help the once mighty BDP in the area.
Despite all these odds stacked against his party, Kario told Mmegi in a recent interview that the BDP’s plan is to regain what they had lost in the last polls after some diehards had decided during the time to emotionally out of fury vote out the BDP from its long-held stronghold.
The BDP’s return to Serowe comes at a crucial time when pundits were already doubting the party as a viable contender in the area.
The BDP is insistent that what they consider the BPF’s staying power has since fizzled out. Kario does not think the BPF is relevant anymore as it simply capitalised on what was prevalent in 2019 and now no more obtainable. It was President Masisi/Khama fracas that attracted sympathy to the Khama cause, which Kario argues, is no longer an issue, as the constituents now know the truth.
Contrary to reports on the ground in Serowe, Kario is adamant that his party has been present on the ground doing everything possible to recover what they lost in 2019. “We have noticed misleading reports that we are weak on the ground in the Serowe constituencies,” declared Kario in an earlier interview. His explanation is that the BDP structures (the region and branches) are fully functional and speak for themselves.
“Our people on the ground have been pushing the registration drive of members and these are internal processes and have not been publicly announced,” explained the BDP secretary-general. He was adamant that his party is in charge in the Serowe District Council as they are in control of the local authority as both the council chairperson and deputy are from the BDP. Kario was elated that the BDP is making inroads into the base of its opponent with ease.
Apparently, what gives the BDP confidence of ‘ousting’ the BPF is that its members have since realised that chieftainship and politics cannot be treated as one and that the ruling party has never been against bogosi as claimed by others. He cited the instability gripping the BPF as a shame for a young party.
“The BPF has been torn asunder by factionalism. Some of the BDP diehards who enjoyed stability at their party are now retracing their steps back to the ruling party,” he said. Kario spoke confidently that the ‘returnees’ are going to help the BDP win the constituency.
He said when Batswana started facing societal ills of high magnitude; they repelled the BDP citing various concerns. “The council by-elections were held at a time when people were very angry at us. Now, with people seeing that the BDP was on the right track, things are bound to change for the better,” the BDP secretary-general said.
Quizzed about the chances of the BDP in the weekend by-election, University of Botswana (UB) lecturer in politics and administrative studies, Adam Mfundisi said the BDP has become a limping ruling party devoid of strategic political leadership.
To him, the BDP has become “rustic, moribund, corrupt and captured. Collective narcissism dominates the BDP and its leadership. It’s now about self-entitlement, agrandisement and inflated ego.”
He adds that the vitriolic attack on Khama and his tribe makes it impossible for the BDP to appeal to the hearts and minds of Bangwato voters.
Bangwato apparently believe in their traditional leadership and iconic Ian.
Added Mfundisi: “The BDP is poorly led and allows unethical foot soldiers to continue attacks on Khama amidst some fake gestures from Masisi.” He blames Masisi for not controlling his troops. He cited incidents towards the President’s Day celebrations where he says there were some attempts by the President to invite Ian to the occasion. “That week, State President Minister Kabo Morwaeng launched vitriolic attacks against Ian,” he said indicating that President Masisi is not in control of his troops. “They are now scoring own goals. Serowe voters will shun the BDP and its unethical leadership. Since Khama’s self exile, the BDP government has assaulted traditional system of Bangwato.
The tribe was denied the use of their Kgotla as well as imposition of a chief,” he noted stressing that Khama has massive support of his tribe and the BPF will triumph.