BCP heads into unfamiliar territory
Mompati Tlhankane | Friday July 7, 2023 14:27
After losing Bophirima, Bosele, Mapoka Nlapkhwane and Mmaphula East wards to the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), the BCP has blatantly indicated that it understands there are no shortcuts to achieving its mission but feels the by-elections are a good barometer as they prepare the party for the 2024 General Election.
“Judging by the elections’ outcome, we have no doubt that Batswana are warming up to our message and are steadily continuing to entrust our party with their votes. This will, with time allow us to take over State power and deliver a better Botswana for all,” the BCP spokesperson, Mpho Pheko revealed after the BCP lost the Mmaphula East ward in Palapye recently.
The BCP has been echoing good governance and democracy, something it says lacks at the UDC hence the party’s planned exit from the 11-year-old coalition. “We got into the race to win but all is not lost as our numbers reflect. The outcome is clear; an overwhelming number of Batswana are tired of the BDP misrule and want change,” Pheko emphasised.
The BCP has lost most of the recent by-elections to the UDC, a coalition it is part of. This time in Serowe West the UDC is not contesting but rather rallying behind its ally, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF). The BPF is defending this constituency after its former legislator Tshekedi Khama lost his MP seat for missing parliamentary sittings.
At first when Khama’s exit was announced, the BCP seemed reluctant on fielding a candidate in this uncharted territory. Serowe West is not even a constituency the BCP has fancied and the reality is that the party does not have proper structures in the area. Before the BPF wrestled the constituency from the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) in 2019, the Serowe West constituency was not even a battleground hotspot but rather a stronghold of the latter. Due to BDP past and what the BPF did in the 2019 General Election, some political experts feel that the Serowe West constituency is now some kind of a swing or tossup constituency because both the BDP and the BPF have high levels of support amongst voters.
In the last general election in 2019, the former Serowe West legislator Tshekedi Khama under the BPF ticket, won the constituency with 4,394 votes while the BDP’s Moemedi Dijeng came second with 2,405 votes. The UDC came third with a distant 749 votes. It is worth noting that Rolent Gambule, the candidate who represented the UDC, was from the Botswana National Front (BNF), another UDC affiliate.
The last time the BCP went at it alone in the Serowe West constituency was in 2014 and it performed badly with its candidate, Kalvin Seabe getting 431 votes while the winner Khama was convincingly ahead with 5,401 votes, a white wash. While the 2019 outcome made it clear that the Serowe West constituency is in fact winnable for the opposition, that could not be said about the BCP even in 2009. Back then when the constituency was still called Serowe North West, the BCP did not contest and it was only the BDP against the BNF. Some political pundits yield a range of problems for the BCP, including weak party structures and a series of less-than-inspiring results. When the BPF wrestled the constituency and other Serowe constituencies from the BDP in 2019, it had patron Ian Khama’s magic factor. But the BCP cannot grow at the same lightning speed overnight just like the BPF.
The BCP knows that it has to at least try in Serowe West in order to keeps its hopes alive especially now that it made it clear that it will be contesting outside the UDC in 2024. Whether contesting Serowe West sets up the BCP for next year or soaks up resources that could go elsewhere, it is up to the party. But there is no other path for the party that was formed in 1998. Before the BDP took over various Gaborone constituencies from the opposition in 2019, the latter had failed to turn out is core base in urban corridors, until the Khama factor worked in various constituencies in the Central District, the BCP being amongst the major beneficiaries.
The BCP also knows the BDP’s rural edge is still insurmountable despite a series of by-election defeats recently. It also understands not to underestimate the party that has been in power since 1966. The BCP structures in the Serowe West constituency still lack that year-round organisation that can mobilise and turnout voters, an advantage the BPF and the BDP have. In recent weeks, just like other parties, the BCP has been trying to lure some voters in Serowe West and it will all go down to the voter come the weekend.
In a rally in the Serowe West constituency recently, the BCP secretary-general Goretetse Kekgonegile dismissed the BDP as a weak challenger and rather acknowledged that the main competitor is the BPF. All candidates have spent the campaign cycle trying to paint their brands as good enough to represent Serowe West voters.
The BCP has put its hopes on Sebusiso Ngwenya as their candidate. Ngwenya says he started opposition politics in 1987. “Dealing with people is not a new thing, I am not taking chances. I grew up in Serowe and I know all the Serowe constituencies in and out,” he said. Ngwenya added that he only wants the remaining 10 months out of a normal five-year term and wished the BDP and the BPF could let him take this one. It is hard to forecast that the BCP could flip Serowe West but if the party, led by Dumelang Saleshando loses badly yet again, it must have the courage to examine itself unflinchingly ahead of 2024.
The narrative of the Kgosikgolo and former president Khama (Ian) is being harassed and eventually forced into exile together with the former area MP Tshekedi seems to have played in the BPF’s favour. So the BCP has to compete against that.
After the 2019 setback, the BDP on the other side feels that Serowe constituencies run deep in its marrow. Therefore the party is trying to reconnect with what used to be its core vote, but the BCP is also competing against that.
After losing Mmaphula East by-election in Palapye recently, Pheko said the BCP’s loyal followers and activists must take heart from the fact that the trend, since 1984 shows that by-elections victory is never mirrored in national elections but rather it is a mirage.
“Our members should not be disheartened but be emboldened to redouble their efforts and work for the BCP victory in 2024. So far so good and we believe we are well placed for 2024,” the BCP stated in a press statement recently.