Talks collapse might spell doom for the BCP
Chakalisa Dube | Monday April 24, 2023 06:00
The BCP has been exploring a relationship or coalition (for the 2024 General Election) with the AP. The BCP made it clear its intentions were to quit the coalition Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), an opposition coalition citing poor governance.
The BLP joined the talks recently. This week the three parties issued a press statement indicating that the AP has pulled out of the talks. The press release further stated that a meeting will be convened in a bid to convince the AP to review its position.
Those close to the events say that the AP is highly unlikely to commit to any working arrangement with the BCP and BLP. Speculation is rife that the AP is now exploring an alliance with the UDC. If the AP could unyield and decide to pursue cooperation talks with the UDC and the outcomes are a success, there are fears that the BCP might struggle to shrug off pressure from the electorate at the next General Election. Here is why. The BCP has often been portrayed as a party that is not sincere when negotiating with other parties.
Such perception might be very distant from the truth, but it is also not far-fetched either for one to assume that the latest developments would likely amplify the view that the BCP is never genuine when dealing with other parties. There are reports that the recent talks collapsed because the BCP was not keen to yield to certain demands of the AP.
If such a narrative is not effectively countered it will eventually put the BCP in a very precarious position in the buildup to the next 2024 General Election. In a nutshell, the BCP might suffer a similar fate as at the 2014 polls. Then, the party was punished by voters for its perceived wrong attitude towards opposition cooperation.
The year 2014 was the year the UDC first contested the General Election while the BCP contested as a single entity. The BCP was accused of not embracing opposition unity, having a ‘Big Brother’ mentality, and not showing genuineness when at the negotiating table with other opposition parties before later pulling out. In addition, the BCP did not do enough to shrug off the accusations although its leaders denied any wrongdoing.
The BCP is also not helped by the fact it has lost all recent by-elections where it disregarded the UDC and chose to go it alone. The most notable examples are Bophirima and Moselewapula ward by-elections that were held a few months ago.
The two by-elections took place before the BCP tension with the UDC intensified. Losing under such circumstances has to some extent cemented the narrative that the UDC remains viable than the BCP. This might earn the latter sympathisers and votes at the next polls. On the flip side, there are those who believe that the by-elections cannot be used as a litmus test for the general polls.
Their position is based on the previous history. Leading to the 2019 General Election, the UDC dominated ward and constituency by-elections only to lose the respective seats at the general elections. Political analyst Adam Mfundisi is amongst those who are against the thinking that the BCP might greatly suffer at the hands of the UDC in 2024 General Election based on the current dynamics. “The UDC is not as formidable as in 2014 when the BMD (who were then part of the UDC) was growing in leaps and bounds. BMD was attracting a substantial number of disgruntled BDP members. Things were rosy and the UDC brand was attractive. The (Gomolemo) Motswaledi factor also worked for the UDC. His demise worked for the UDC. Then, the BNF (another key partner in the coalition) was also a potent force on politics of Botswana,” Mfundisi said.
The University of Botswana political science lecturer is also of the view that the 2019 general polls exposed the vulnerability of the BNF and the UDC. That is why he believes that the current dynamics cannot be entirely used to predict that the BCP will be humiliated in 2024 if it goes at it alone just like in 2014. “The energised and rebranded Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) dislodged the BNF of UDC from its strongholds in Gaborone and its environs including Ngwaketse area. The BNF and UDC leader was a casualty. In addition to alleged electoral fraud and rigging, the BNF campaigns were poorly organised. The party structures were dysfunctional and inept paving way for the BDP to exploit.
Association with SKI, who was not in good books with unions and the media worked against UDC and BNF,” he said. He also posited that in order for the AP, BLP and BCP to form a formidable partnership there should be commitment from all parties. He emphasized that that coalition politics is a tall order and requires strategic political leadership. “Botswana has a lacuna in that area. Coalition of political parties is not easy to create, grow and sustain. It requires clear vision, mission, strategy, goal and objectives. Political parties and leaders have different, conflicting, contrasting, and contradictory objectives,” said the analyst.
Added, Mfundisi, “Factional politics destabilises the process toward a durable and sustainable coalition.
These unprincipled politicians undermine opposition unity to give an impression that there is no alternative the moribund and corrupt BDP.” He suspects that the decision of the AP to somersault from AP-BCP- BLP coalition might be a result of pressure and influence from both BDP and UDC. “Some political opportunists in AP interpret UDC by-election victories as a threat to it (AP) and, BDP incumbency opportunities to access financial, economic, and political resources. The state in Botswana is massive and controls every facet of society. To succeed in personal and business one has to associate with it (BDP).” The BCP has through a press release denied that it negotiated with the AP without an element of authenticity. Mpho Pheko, who is the spokesperson of the party, said the party is still committed to ensuring that a working arrangement with the AP and BLP becomes a reality. The three parties were to meet late yesterday in a bid to address the sticking points with the AP.