Who wins 2024?
Ryder Gabathuse | Monday April 10, 2023 06:00
Across the political divide there is excitement that if the elections were called tomorrow, political parties were ready to do battle. One striking reality however, is that on the surface, it seems the opposition has not done enough to support their readiness as they continue to be fragmented. This, to a large extent, has given the ruling party a ray of hope, again. In the 2019 General Election, the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) garnered 52% of the popular vote, seconded by the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) with 35.88 %, Alliance for Progressives got 5.12 percent whilst the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) polled 4.41 percent.
Despite the seemingly rough political terrain ahead, opposition parties claim there is no better time for them than now including the 2024 General Election. There is a strong feeling that the ruling party has failed on its promises at the 2019 polls so much that it has set itself on a collision course with the masses who regard the ruling party to have failed them.
On the other hand, it seems evidence favours the ruling BDP, one of Africa’s longest ruling parties (since 1966) as it has steadily been gaining ground after improving its popular vote in the last general election. It was least expected as the opposition under the coalition Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) was at its best and was well resourced to compete with the evergreen BDP.
The impending break away of one of the main partners in the UDC, Botswana Congress Party (BCP) which claims the situation in the UDC has not been conducive is a major setback for the opposition bloc.
The BCP regretted remaining in the UDC accusing Duma Boko, UDC president, of undemocratic tendencies, citing unilateralism. UDC dirty linen was in the process washed in the public leaving some potential followers confused about the state of the coalition partners.
On the BDP side, Kavis Kario is the secretary-general and is in charge of the party secretariat, the heartbeat of the ruling party. Kario and his team have set themselves an ambitious target of scoring a popular vote of between 60% and 70% in the next general election. To them, their target may not be easy but it’s achievable. In fact, it’s President Mokgweetsi Masisi’s wish to increase the popular vote to between 60-70 % and thereby win more constituencies.
Quizzed this week about how ready his party would be if elections were to be held tomorrow, Kario sounded very confident and said: “Very, very ready.”
His confidence is precipitated by the reality that the BDP has a manifesto from the 2019 General Election, which has listed the promises the party would deliver to the people. According to him, his party is doing everything possible to deliver to the satisfaction of the masses.
“We are doing well and people will continue to gauge our delivery through how we serve them,” said Kario.
His emphasis is that they are a ruling party and they understand the needs of the people. He says that as a party in government they have been serving people diligently, adding “we will continue serving the nation with aplomb”.
He describes the BDP as organised and very focused on delivery to the satisfaction of the masses. He said so far the BDP has delivered a lot despite the recent COVID-19 pandemic challenges. He adds that the BDP has delivered land to Batswana although it’s yet to hit its 100,000 allocation target. Another area that the BDP has been doing a lot he says is on water reticulation including sanitation across the country.
Kario says his party has been pushing hard on the issue of export promotion and value chain participation.
“Batswana will measure our performance against our promises even when the elections are called anytime. We are going to win the elections on our own strength,” Kario insisted. He adds that they are organising and reviving party structures and thereby activating the party machinery. The BDP according to Kario is taking things seriously.
“In terms of preparations, we are taking things seriously. Our aim is to increase our popular vote and the number of constituencies won,” emphasised the BDP man.
For his party, UDC spokesperson Moeti Mohwasa indicated they are ready anytime for the elections. “We have a set of policies that we believe answer issues of governance.” He is elated that his party has depth in terms of human resource,” he said.
He said pound for pound by far, they are ahead of the ruling BDP. He also feels the UDC is in good shape adding that they are much better than the BDP in terms of appeal.
Mohwasa is adamant that the BDP is in power but it is not answering the issues of the people.
“We raised the issue of the laptops availed to schools and the ruling party has implemented it. We also advocated for the national health insurance which will improve access to health care, there is also the use of hemp which is a global development but the BDP is resisting it,” noted the UDC spokesperson.
If free and fair elections were to be held tomorrow, Mohwasa is adamant the UDC will win them. He accuses the state media of spreading propaganda, which unfortunately he says the ruling BDP is still failing to win the hearts and minds of the people. Another contentious issue is of youth unemployment, which he says has now reached a worrying level as youth graduate and are thrown into the streets in large numbers.
In what he claims to be the bigger part of the ruling party’s ‘rigging’ of elections, “counting of ballots is not done at the polling stations for the national elections whereas it condones the practice during party internal elections”.
On another side, Botswana Congress Party (BCP) secretary-general, Goretetse Kekgonegile says if elections were called tomorrow it will find them still trying to establish a coalition with their like-minded partners, which might slightly affect their performance.
He concedes that they won’t be 100 % ready but as they continue working hard to set up systems, they will be rewarded. Kekgonegile says it is the BCP’s strategy to retain their constituencies and win more including wards.
The BCP has candidates already lined up for some constituencies and wards but he decried that they don’t have resources to oil their campaign machinery as yet.
Political analysts say elections are not won or lost on the polling day, but are a process that span a long period beginning with the Delimitation Commission, registration of voters, campaigns and subsequently voting and counting.
They also emphasise that what takes place pre-voting, to a larger degree influences the outcomes of the general election. The Delimitation Commission recently completed its task as per the Constitution after the Population and Housing Census.
The BDP according to University of Botswana (UB) lecturer in politics and administrative studies, Adam Mfundisi pre-empted the work of the Commission thereby influencing the boundary delimitation. The ruling party, through the Parliamentary process, unilaterally decided to set the new constituencies at four without substantive arguments on the figure.
And the Delimitation Commission, he says, had to follow the statutory provision without any reservations. The President, who is a potential player, determines the composition of the commission. Machiavellian theory of ‘the ends justify the means’ seemed to be at play here, suggested Mfundisi. The UB academic says gerrymandering, is not by default but by design.
“The President and the BDP are directly and indirectly influencing the outcomes of the 2024 General Election. The new constituencies more so in opposition dominated constituencies are aimed at disadvantaging them and proceeding an opportunity, real or imagined to the BDP,” he says. Opposition MPs in Parliament, according to Mfundisi, are performing excellently and their voters seem to be happy.
“In spite of their numbers in the National Assembly, they have kept the Executive on check posing probing questions to the Ministers. The BDP backbench is the weakest in the political history of Botswana Parliament and the BDP,” Mfundisi noted.
He described BDP backbenchers as ‘instruments’ of the Executive and have abandoned their constituencies in preference to the Executive. Too him, most of them may fail to secure BDP ticket and if they do, may be humiliated at the polls.
“The BDP of the 2019 General Election in Parliament seem to be the weakest in its history and may be a vehicle for its demise in the 2024 General Election. What the civil society including opposition political parties must do is to stop or minimise electoral fraud and rigging in the 2024 General Election. Lessons have been learnt from the 2019 controversial elections as well as experiences from Zambia,” he observed.
His take is that a strong and vibrant civil society should be a custodian of the polls ensuring that the elections must be free, fair, credible, democratic and verifiable.
Mfundisi feels the President and the BDP somersaulted on a new constitutional order that would ensure that democracy reigns not the whims and caprices of the rulers.
His considered view is that the BDP has been in power since 1966 not because people are or were content with its rule or leadership. “The British Constitution has influenced the electoral process and outcomes. The unelected President has been imbued with intensive and extensive powers in the governance of this country. The President of Botswana is the primary shaker and mover of the socio-economic and political processes,” the UB academic says.
He accuses the BDP and its leadership of having exploited incumbency factors to dominate the political processes in order to influence the electoral outcomes.
To the successive BDP administrations he says they used State resources and institutions to win elections through hook or crook. “We must be brutal about these facts to be able to understand the domination of the BDP in Botswana's polity. For example, the BDP presidents have turned the sacred kgotla system as an instrument to mobilise voters particularly in rural areas. The British crafted Constitution and Parliamentary legislation allow the President to dissolve Parliament and this allows him and his party to dominate the kgotla system and process,” he appealed. He added: “And successive presidents have used and abused the system for political ends. Opposition leaders and parties do not enjoy the same. Furthermore, the electoral administration of elections have been controlled and dominated by the BDP. Some political players are referees at the same time in a game they are participants. This in part explains the dominance of the BDP in Botswana's political system.”
Mfundisi strongly feels that the BDP cannot win elections that are premised on a free, fair, competitive, credible, democratic and verifiable electoral process. His take is that the BDP government does not conform to the SADC principles of elections, which outlines conditions for a free, fair, and democratic electoral administration and processes.
He pointed to a few redflags: The BDP government controls the State media and the ruling party is funded indirectly by the government at the detriment of opposition parties. Worse, leaders competing for electoral office including for the presidency of the country are not provided with State resources including State protection and transportation. Only the BDP President and his VP enjoy state resources during the electoral cycle. He encouraged civil society organisations including political parties to fully participate in the electoral process to deter BDP manipulation of the elections.
The political scientist is steadfast that the current crop of voters require ethical and accountable politicians who walk the talk. The televisation of Parliamentary proceedings, he feels has sensitised people on parliamentarians, their quality and contributions to their upliftment. Quizzed if opposition parties have the wherewithal to turn the tables and win the elections come 2024, he says Opposition parties are faced by a hostile and corrupt State bent on unethical and unaccountable behaviour.
He added: “Additionally, they lack resources to mobilise voters in a country with inhospitable terrain due to lack of physical infrastructure. Some rural areas are inaccessible and the BDP uses State assets to reach these places. Furthermore, the current public service is highly politicised and pose a threat to our democracy.”
He says weak political structures are a problem for opposition mobilisation of the voters who are disillusioned with the BDP misrule. Lastly, the political scientist feels strongly that coalition of opposition political parties is a daunting task due to merely personality problems rather than ideological positions.
On the other hand, he doesn’t believe that Botswana needs a two party contest. Instead, he says it takes strategic leadership in opposition formation to face the BDP in 2024.
Mfundisi also says Masisi-led government promised too many things and has dismally failed to deliver including constitutional change. “Many voters have lost faith and trust on Masisi and his BDP. Their (Masisi and the BDP) arrogance and empathy impairment will cost them dearly in 2024 General Election. The civil society must prevent electoral fraud and rigging come 2024,” he added.
The UB lecturer encouraged opposition parties to recognise their strengths and weaknesses to defeat the “moribund and corrupt BDP”. “Each opposition party must concentrate on areas that it has a high chance of success and leave others to other opposition forces. The BNF must concentrate on southern part of the country more so Gaborone and its environs. And the BCP must do the same in the northern part particularly those it won in 2019 General Election,” was his parting shot.