Delimitation Commission report: More headache for Tshabang
Lebogang Mosikare | Monday February 27, 2023 06:00
While some political activists in the country may be happy about the report, this may not be so with the current Member of Parliament (MP) for Nkange constituency, Dr Never Tshabang.
In the 2019 General Election, Tshabang, then a Botswana Congress Party (BCP) activist deployed by the party to represent its parent organisation, Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), won the constituency with 7,766 votes. Tshabang was followed by Ishmael Mokgethi of the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) with 6,806 votes while Edison Wotho of the Alliance for Progressives (AP) garnered 1,458 votes. The political dynamics in Nkange constituency have dramatically changed: Tshabang has since been expelled from the BCP.
Tshabang and four other BCP legislators were suspended and subsequently fired from the BCP for defying a party directive. The directive notified them not to participate in the UDC parliamentary caucus that was held on July 10, 2022 or any subsequent caucuses intended to deal with any matter affecting the president of the BCP, Dumelang Saleshando, and BCP secretary-general, Goretetse Kekgonegile, following the duo’ suspension from the UDC until the BCP dealt with their suspensions at its conference that was held from July 15 to 18, 2022 in Mahalapye.
At the time, UDC president, Duma Boko said Saleshando and Kekgonegile were suspended from the UDC for uttering disparaging and maligning statements about the UDC in the media. Following Saleshando and Kekgonegile’ suspensions from the UDC, bad blood between the UDC and BCP ensued. The long running disputes between the UDC and BCP have been simmering even before the BCP expelled Tshabang and his four colleagues from its ranks.
The BCP still maintains that the UDC, particularly its leader, Boko, is bereft of the tenets of democracy, constitutionalism and good governance. But Boko has on numerous occasions strenuously denied these accusations saying that he does not unilaterally take decisions in the UDC.
Boko added that he was just a messenger of what other national executive committee (NEC) members of the UDC task him to do following thorough discussions during meetings. Tshabang is already assured of representing the Umbrella in the constituency following a controversial UDC ultimatum that ordered seating BCP legislators and councillors to confirm in writing by September 26, 2022 their desire to represent the coalition in the 2024 General Election. Those who acquiesced to that ultimatum were given the greenlight to represent the UDC in the hotly anticipated 2024 polls without undergoing primary elections. At the end, the ultimatum bore little fruits as only seven councillors mainly from constituencies held by the ‘renegade’ BCP legislators acceded to its demands. However, this is in stark contrast with Tshabang’s situation in the Nkange constituency. After the 2024 plebiscite, five BCP councillors who were seconded by the BCP to represent the UDC managed to win council seats. The BDP also won five local government seats. However, all the BCP councillors who were seconded to the UDC disregarded the UDC ultimatum stripping Tshabang of a chunk of political capital. This was after the BCP advised its MPs and councillors that the UDC ultimatum-which threatened to recall them from the Legislature and councils should they not accede to its demands-was just a paper tiger which cannot be legally enforced. Tshabang now has to punch above his weight to retain the constituency. On the ground, circumstances seem to be not in his favour if the 2019 General Election results and other factors are anything to go by. During the 2019 General Election, an AP parliamentary candidate, Wotho, garnered 1,458 votes while Tshabang was voted by 7,766 voters. Taking the above into consideration and if dynamics remain constant, UDC and Tshabang face an uphill battle to retain the constituency. This is given that, the BCP and AP have already started to work together in the build up to the 2024 General Election.
The duo has joined forces with the country’s newest political party, Botswana Labour Party (BLP), a splinter party of the Botswana National Front (BNF), in their quest to remove the BDP from power. The BCP, BNF, Botswana People’s Party (BPP) and BPF are other affiliates of the UDC. But as things stand, there are signs that the BCP will officially exit the UDC during its annual conference slated for July this year. Political observers and BCP activists are of the view that the conference will be used as a tool to rubber stamp the party’s exit from the UDC. This, analysts and observers add, has precedent. Those who opine that it is only a matter of time before the BCP leaves the UDC say that the BCP conference will give the party the go ahead to leave the UDC just like it did when it (conference) took the decision to expel five legislators. The voting patterns of people in Nkange constituency also show that the odds may be stacked against Tshabang (UDC). During the 2014 general elections, the BDP won the constituency with 6461 votes. The BCP, which was represented by Tshabang and was by then not an affiliate of the UDC, was voted by 5874 people while the UDC managed a paltry 358 votes. Also, during the 2009 general polls, the BDP was voted by 6,094 voters followed by the BCP with 4,618 votes. The three political cycles (2019, 2014 and 2009) show that parties that have more followers in the Nkange constituency are the BCP and BDP. The above electoral cycles also show other UDC affiliates (BPP, BPF and BNF) are almost non-existent in the Nkange constituency. The same applies to the AP and BLP which have started a working relationship with the BCP. Tshabang’s precarious situation is not helped by one of the recent recommendations of the constituency Delimitation Commission report. The report recommends that four wards (Sebina, Marobela, Marapong), which were won by BCP councillors who were seconded to the UDC during the 2019 General Election, should now be realigned to the Nkange constituency.
Out of the four wards only Nshakazhogwe was won by the BDP. The four wards were previously in the Shashe West constituency. According to the results of 2019 General Election from the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), in Sebina, the UDC won the ward with 729 votes. The BDP came in second place with 580 votes while the AP and an independent candidate garnered 79 and 43 votes respectively. Factoring the votes that were garnered by a BCP activist who was seconded to the UDC in 2019 and votes for the AP, Tshabang will surely have a mountain to climb to win the Nkange constituency. The above situation also replicates in Marobela and Marapong wards. In Marobela, a BCP cadre who was deployed to the UDC bagged the ward with 798 votes followed by the BDP and BPF with 688 and 31 votes respectively. The same applies to Marapong ward which was won by a BCP activist with 675 votes. The BDP finished in second place with 525 votes while the AP finished in third position with 480 votes. In Nshakazhogwe, the BDP won the ward with 549 votes followed by the UDC, AP and BPF with 402, 101 and 27 votes respectively. It should be noted that even in Nshakazhogwe, the UDC was represented by a BCP deployee. If the above statistics are used as a yardstick to predict how the 2024 General Election will pan out, then it may not be off the mark to assume that Tshabang will enter the 2019 polls having to play a lot of catch up with his competitors. Tshabang’ situation may also be compounded by the fact that BCP activists in the Nkange constituency have already started campaigns long before Tshabang was expelled from the BCP.
The BCP operatives are however keeping their cards close to their chests because the BCP is yet to issue an expression of interest notice inviting those who want to contest in its primaries at local and parliamentary levels to do so. One of the BCP activists, current councillor for Maitengwe ward, Million Masumbika, is rumoured to be contemplating to run for Parliament in the 2024 General Elections. Masumbika, who is also the chairperson of the Nkange constituency, has previously denied that rumour in an interview with this publication.
There are also reports that Motlhaleemang Moalosi-who previously represented the BCP in Shashe West constituency in 2014 General Election-is harbouring intentions of relocating to the Nkange constituency. According to BCP insiders in the Nkange, the constituency is expected to attract a lot of aspirants because it is considered winnable. When asked if he harbours ambitions of standing for primaries in the Nkange constituency, Moalosi, who hails from Marapong village in the constituency, said he has interest in competing in the BCP parliamentary primaries.
“I originate from Marapong village even though I previously represented the BCP in Shashe West. I consider the Nkange constituency as an extension of my home village,” said Moalosi. However, Moalosi stated that he will publicly announce his intentions after the BCP gives its activists the go ahead to start campaigns before the primaries. Asked about his take about the realignment of the Nkange constituency which will add four wards to the constituency Tshabang said: “There is nothing all of us, even my competitors can do about this new development. The realignment of the constituency will however, stretch all the parties, especially the opposition resource wise.”