Tsogwane could become oldest president
Tsaone Basimanebotlhe | Monday January 16, 2023 06:00
The VP, who has been a Member of Parliament (MP) since 1999, will be 68 years old if he takes the baton from Masisi in 2028 as has been the norm when a sitting president’s two terms end.
History shows that Botswana presidents have been ascending to power between the ages of 45 and 59. Founding president of Botswana, the late Sir Seretse Khama, became the first president in 1966 when he was 55 years; the late Sir Ketumile Masire took over the presidency in 1980 when he was 54 years; Festus Mogae was 59 and in 1998, Ian Khama was 45 when he took office in 2008 while Masisi was 57 in 2018. It will be the first-time in the history of the country to have a president who is in his late 60s should it happen.
Already debate has started on whether President Masisi will keep the status quo or start looking amongst his loyalists for the next VP. Should Masisi keep the status quo, Tsogwane will be handed the baton.
For one to become VP, he or she must have won a parliamentary seat. Botswana's Constitution doesn't allow Specially Elected MPs to be nominated for the VP position. Therefore, this is one of the challenges Tsogwane must overcome and win the Boteti West constituency again. He is the longest-serving MP in Parliament. If Tsogwane wins Boteti West next year, he would have served six Parliaments spanning a period of about 30 years.
In 2019, Tsogwane won the constituency through a slim margin of 293 votes which shows that he has to work hard to win re-election in the 2024 General Election. The Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) had 7,006 votes, the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) 6,713, the Alliance for Progressives (AP) 343 and there were 111 spoiled votes.
Another concern that people are raising is that Tsogwane has not demonstrated that he is the right man for the job and lacks confidence when it comes to articulating issues in both Setswana and English. In short, he lacks oratory skills whilst his principal is endowed with the skills. But there is also a contention that because he had managed to organise the BDP well when it went for its elective congress in Tsabong that was threatened by internal instability, then he cannot fail to lead the country.
“It must be noted that President Masisi is under pressure to see Tsogwane win. So far in the party, he has a strong base that could not be shaken by anyone and that he had proved during the Tsabong elective congress last year. Again Masisi has to be careful with his choice since his party is going for a special congress this year or early next year to choose a President to lead the party to the 2024 General Election. That is where he (Masisi) will also need Tsogwane’s support. Again he had promised BDP members at different fora that Tsogwane will be the next President,” a source within the party said.
The source also revealed that for party stability, Masisi might endorse Tsogwane. Notwithstanding this position, the President might make a decision to rope in someone that he thinks will be most suitable to help him lead both the party and government.
University of Botswana (UB) political and administrative studies lecturer, Adam Mfundisi said it is difficult to predict what President Masisi would do.
“The truth is that he is also insecure. Our President prefers some people from the southern part of the country than the northern side. He put him there for his own benefit so that he could finish his term. He may change and endorse a person he really wants. Another challenge is the VP has not proven to people that he could lead the country.
In politics, age does not matter and older people have wisdom,” Mfundisi said in an interview. Meanwhile, Tsogwane has also started building his base of structures including a team that runs his publicity. Speaking in Tsabong last year on the eve of the BDP elective congress, Tsogwane disclosed that MPs past and present thought he was not intelligent.
He said all the legislators who found him in Parliament have lost key positions in the central committee (CC) while others have lost elections but he remains the last man standing. He said some of the MPs never thought he could become VP. “God helped me because they didn’t think I would become VP. They ignored and underestimated me but that was their mistake. I have good reasons why I have to do it,” Tsogwane further said making a suggestion that his journey towards the presidency has pretty much begun.
The VP also said by selecting the lobby list that managed to win, he had shown his ability to choose, a trait he needs if he is to one day become president of the country.
“My responsibility is to choose and you should get used to it. A leader should be able to choose. I asked you if Masisi retires, would I come to you to help choose members of the Cabinet? Your answer was no and that is what I am doing. I want you to get used to the fact that I choose,” Tsogwane told BDP members in Tsabong.
One of the people likely to become President is Peggy Serame who is the first woman to become Minister of Finance. If she becomes the next VP, that could also help the party to attract more women who have been feeling left out for a long time.