The disconnected opposition
Mompati Tlhankane | Monday November 7, 2022 06:00
The Botswana National Front (BNF), the Botswana Congress Party (BCP), the Botswana People’s Party (BPP), the Alliance for Progressives (AP), the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF), the Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD), the Botswana Labour Party (BLP) and the Real Alternative (RAP) have all become a disconnected and partly allied web of opposition parties. With the resurrection of the BMD in Mahalapye last weekend, coalition-building would likely centre around three main hopefuls.
The Umbrella for Democratic Party (UDC), which is made up of four parties being the BNF, the BPP, the BPF and the BCP will likely end up with three because the latter is on its way out. That leaves the UDC as the BNF-BPP-BPF alliance. The BCP, which has started official talks with the AP, have left the door open for other political parties and recently they invited the BLP to their negotiating table so this particular alliance might end up as the BCP-AP or the BCP-AP-BLP. The third one which was not seen as possible until recently combines BMD with the RAP and the BLP. Both the newly elected BMD president Nehemiah Modubule and the BLP interim secretary-general Kgakgamatso Kebiditswe have indicated that they will consider this alliance as they contemplate their political prospects.
These political parties have created these alliances not because they are united themselves and mainly because no party stands a chance against the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) without forming an alliance. Opposition parties are convinced that forming a strong alliance is more likely to defeat the incumbent BDP. Coalition building remains underway and the BLP, which is a BNF splinter party, is torn between the BCP-AP and the BMD-RAP alliances. The BLP knows very well that they stand a better chance with the BCP-AP than the BMD–RAP. But as a new party, their fear is being swallowed by the two big parties. As a smaller party in the alliance, they could also worry about being marginalised. If their alliance with the BMD and the RAP works out, they will still not be enough to form a government therefore, they are poorly placed to gain from it. The BMD-RAP-BLP’s rock-bottom popularity drags down their combined figure.
The BMD on the other side is exploring options and the party president Modubule says they are open to talks with the BCP-AP alliance despite the AP being the party they broke away from. But looking at the fact that the BMD was battered after the 2019 General Elections eventually leading to its demise, it is highly unlikely that they will be offered a seat at the table let alone return to the UDC four years after being expelled. Their exclusion at the BCP-AP and the UDC table might leave them with the remaining option, which is the RAP. With the BCP, their path is clear looking at what they have been building with the AP since their feud with the UDC begun early this year. Although sometimes it appears confused about what it wants, the BCP have learnt their lesson with the UDC and cannot afford to go through convoluted alliances again. As ‘like-minded parties’, the BCP-AP grouping is beginning to solidify its hegemony.
This alliance can attract an extensive coalition of social forces but it is unlikely to make a bid for power unless it manifests properly. It is not very clear what the Duma Boko-led UDC’s game plan is but there are indications that they are prepared to let the BCP go considering the fact that they managed to attract the BPF to their coalition not so long ago. It looks like the BPF will not be going anywhere soon because even both sides of their warring camps have endorsed the decision to join the UDC. The BPP is just there and whether they leave or not will not make a difference. This particular alliance, which is the strongest looking at the number of seats they have in Parliament and councils, is unlikely to change. The UDC did well in 2019 only to let their differences destroy everything and now it makes their efforts to crystallise nationally difficult. T
his is one coalition which has squandered an opportunity to give the BDP a run for its money. Let’s say this alliance works, it can present a unified platform which could conceivably win the elections. The inability of the opposition to work together and offer a viable alternative has allowed the BDP to remain in office since independence in 1966. Increasing cooperation within the opposition camp signals bad news for the BDP but a three horse race in the opposition means split votes and a walk in the park for the President Mokgweetsi Masisi-led ruling BDP. While cooperating against the ruling BDP, these parties are also in competition with each other. Perhaps one could say the possible three coalitions signify the vitality of the democratic forces in Botswana but most will struggle to build the right alliances. In the end some parties are likely to drift away from negotiating tables if the alliance does not accommodate their demands.
Despite the uneven playing field created by the division, the opposition parties have a reasonable chance of defeating the BDP in the 2024 General Elections and could enable a democratic shift through the ballot box. Adam Mfundisi, the University of Botswana (UB) politics and administrative studies lecturer told Mmegi recently, "it would seem that the possibility of having two opposition coalitions of political parties might emerge. One comprising the BNF, the BPF and the BPP under the UDC formation and the other one consisting of the AP, the BCP and the newly formed BLP (a splinter party from the BNF).
The name of the latter has not been decided yet. Mfundisi further acknowledged that to have a single coalition of opposition parties is elusive and may not succeed. He, however, highlighted a possibility of two coalition formations, which he said is a reality if the political forces are read correctly in the country. “Two strong coalitions of political parties with clear visions, mission, strategies, philosophy and doctrine are more important than a single one that will be beset by differences. Effective coalitions are symbolised by a few coalition parties with shared vision and interests,” suggested the UB lecturer.
To the political commentator, opposition parties need strategic leaders who promote democracy and good governance premised on transparency, accountability and respect for the rule of law.