Major political test awaits Tshabang
Lebogang Mosikare | Monday October 31, 2022 06:00
Tshabang, together with legislators David Tshere of Mahalapye West, Dithapelo Keorapetse of Selebi-Phikwe West, Kenny Kapinga of Okavango and Onneetse Ramogapi of Palapye were expelled from the Botswana Congress Party (BCP) a few months ago.
Kapinga, who was walking a tightrope following his suspension and subsequent expulsion, is now in the process of mending bridges with the BCP, which is an affiliate of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC).
The BCP resolved to fire the five lawmakers after they participated in the UDC Parliamentary Caucus that was mandated to choose a new Leader of Opposition (LoO).
Following the caucus, Keorapetse, then a BCP cadre, replaced Dumelang Saleshando as the LoO. By then, Saleshando, the president of the BCP and his secretary-general, Goretetse Kekgonegile were slapped with suspensions by the UDC pending disciplinary hearings. When briefing the media in Palapye in July following the suspensions of Saleshando and Kekgonegile, the UDC president Duma Boko revealed that the party took the decision to suspend the duo after they uttered disparaging and maligning statements about the UDC in the media.
Tshabang represented the UDC in Nkange in the 2019 General Elections by virtue of the BCP having affiliated to the UDC. The BCP and the UDC are now embroiled in a fractured relationship that is caused by governance issues amongst others.
Accusations and counter accusations are flying thick and fast between the BCP and the UDC over the governing of the UDC, a coalition which also includes the Botswana National Front (BNF), the Botswana Peoples’ Party (BPP) and the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF).
Some analysts are saying that talks of a negotiated settlement geared towards healing rifts between the BCP and the UDC have all but evaporated. The analysts add that the political crosswinds currently afflicting the BCP and the UDC will not subside anytime soon because hardly a week passes without the duo trading barbs on social and mainstream media.
In the 2019 General Elections, Tshabang won the Nkange constituency with 7,766 votes. Tshabang was followed by Ishmael Mokgethi of the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) and Edison Wotho of the Alliance for Progressives (AP) with 6,806 and 1,458 votes respectively. In the local government elections (wards), the BCP and BDP took home five seats each.
While Tshabang is already assured of being a UDC parliamentary candidate in the 2024 General Elections following a controversial ultimatum that allows all sitting BCP ‘dissidents’ (at parliamentary and ward level) the green light to represent the UDC in the 2019 general elections without undergoing primary elections, dynamics on the ground seem to be not in his favour.
All the five UDC councillors in Nkange constituency chose to remain with the BCP unlike their few (eight) colleagues who acceded to the UDC ultimatum. The National Executive Committee (NEC) of the UDC is still grappling with whether or not to extend the deadline (September 26, 2022) of the ultimatum. The BCP told its sitting parliamentarians and councillors to ignore the UDC ultimatum, which some BCP supporters liken to a “toothless bulldog”. Some observers are of the view that the deadline of the ultimatum may be extended because it only attracted a few councillors who are mainly based in the constituencies of the four expelled BCP legislators.
Analysts also opine that following Tshabang’s expulsion from the BCP, it was expected that some of his councillors would follow him to the UDC. This, however, did not materialise and has left Tshabang skating on thin ice. Tshabang will have to punch above his weight to convince the electorate to vote for the UDC. However, his prospects of success without the backing of the BCP in the constituency seem to be unfavourable. Analysts opine that the decision of the UDC to give the the BCP ‘dissidents’ the free pass to contest the 2019 polls without undergoing primary elections will surely ignite a cloud of discontent amongst some UDC cadres who were also eyeing the constituencies.
The status quo, observers add, will cause some good standing activists of the UDC in the constituencies now under the helm of the four fired BCP legislators to revolt and stand as independent candidates, a move that has the potential to lead to vote splitting.
In the same vein, the sidelined UDC cadres may either join the BDP or the BCP, which is heavily involved in talks with the AP to form a formidable alliance in preparation of the 2024 polls.
History is also not on the side of the UDC in the Nkange constituency. Statistics from the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) shows that only the BDP and the BCP contested the Nkange constituency in 2009.
During those elections, the BDP emerged victorious with 4,118 votes while the BCP garnered 2,367 votes. In 2014, the Nkange parliamentary seat was contested by the BDP, the BCP and the UDC. The BDP won it by 6,461 votes. It was followed by the BCP and the UDC with 5,874 and 358 votes respectively.
If the above statistics is anything to go by, one will not be off the mark to say that the Nkange constituency is the stronghold of the BCP and not the UDC (BNF), which has a strong presence in the southern part of the country.
That assertion is, however, subject to debate because during the 2019 General Elections, most BNF activists who represented the UDC in the southern part of Botswana in the 2019 General Elections lost their strongholds to the BDP. In the aftermath of the 2019 General Elections, the UDC cried foul saying that the elections were rigged. The UDC then petitioned the courts in a bid to reverse the results but lost all its cases (mostly from the southern parts of Botswana) on technicalities.
When asked to comment about his prospects of success in the 2024 General Elections, Tshabang said he was not willing to comment unless he physically meets this reporter. Prior to saying that he will report this reporter at his editor on Thursday, Tshabang had responded to Mmegi enquiries via WhatsApp saying, “these kinds of questions need us to sit down in order to enable me to give you a proper perspective”. When this reporter called Tshabang on Thursday to clarify his WhatsApp response, he insisted on meeting the reporter physically.
When this reporter told Tshabang that there were many ways of interviewing sources, Tshabang insisted on meeting this reporter physically and threatened to report the reporter to his superiors. According to Tshabang, from the way this reporter was asking him questions, he could sense that the reporter had taken a deliberate biased stand against him.
Mmegi had asked Tshabang that taking into consideration that he has been given the green light by the UDC to contest the 2024 General Elections without undergoing primary elections, which move may ignite some discontentment from other cadres of the UDC in good standing in the Nkange constituency who were also eyeing his (parliamentary) seat; that statistics from the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) from 2009 to 2019 shows that the Nkange constituency can be said to be a stronghold of the BCP since other affiliates of the UDC (BNF, BPF and BPP) have little or no presence in the constituency; that no seating councillor in Nkange constituency acceded to the UDC ultimatum of having to choose between the UDC and BCP by September 26, 2022, how does Tshabang rate his chances of retaining the constituency in the 2024 general elections?
While Tshabang has disappointed legions of BCP supporters in Nkange and across the country for ‘betraying the party and sticking with Boko and the UDC’, he is still highly spoken of in the constituency. A BCP councillor in the Nkange constituency says that Tshabang is a quality representative who should not be taken lightly. “Dr Tshabang is a quality legislator.
He articulated issues of his constituency excellently in Parliament. He is one of the opposition legislators who performed very well in the current Parliament. The BCP and the BDP should ignore him at their own peril in 2024. He still commands a sizeable number of followers in the constituency”, said the councillor.