The BCP hardly learns
Mompati Tlhankane | Monday August 8, 2022 06:00
This was a second defeat for the BCP after losing Bophirima ward by-election in the Gaborone Bonnington South constituency in April.
Many were shocked by the party’s decision to go at it alone again in Moselewapula subsequent to the results from Bophirima where Mankie Sekete of the UDC won the ward.
According to theoretical physicist, Albert Einstein, doing the same thing over and over again, each time expecting a different outcome is insanity. Following the 2014 general election humiliation, many thought the BCP would have learnt something.
After all, the party got it so wrong when it pulled out from the opposition party negotiations in 2014 and refused to be part of the initial founding parties of the UDC. Mistakes can be rectified and the BCP’s decision to finally join the UDC in 2018 was a welcome development for opposition politics.
For the first time in their history they managed to win 11 parliamentary seats all thanks to the UDC ticket and in many ways the wonders of former president Ian Khama’s magic.
Their 2014 performance, which saw Saleshando losing his then Gaborone Central constituency to the very same coalition he refused to join was now water under the bridge. As one of the party elites, Saleshando for those five years outside Parliament was served with a serious humble pie. When the BCP finally set foot on the UDC dinner table to take a bite, many thought history would never repeat itself.
Speaking of history, BCP’s 11 MPs after the 2019 general election is same number of legislators who broke from Botswana National Front (BNF) on the eve of the 1999 general election to form the BCP.
Then, only one returned to Parliament after the 1999 election and in the subsequent general election in 2004 party still had one MP in Saleshando who was the parley newbie at the time after defeating Margaret Nasha of the BDP against all odds in a David versus Goliath encounter. In 2009 the party did quite well with their alliance with Botswana Alliance Movement (BAM) and they managed to scoop four constituencies to make it five in total.
BCP at the time managed to wrestle Selebi-Phikwe West, Chobe, Okavango and Ngami constituencies from the ruling BDP. In 2004 the BCP was only elected by 68,556 people but in 2009, it increased the numbers to 119,738 a growth of 51,182.
For a fast growing party, the 2014 debacle where it only managed three MPs was a massive miscalculation especially considering that the BDP could not even attain over 50% of the popular vote. This led to some serious soul-searching, which saw the BCP finally coming to its senses. Fast forward to now, patterns of future mistakes are starting to appear. The BCP has now expelled five of their MPs and lost two by-elections to the UDC.
How it is getting the same thing so wrong after all the years is what begs the question. Rather than reassess their polarizing agenda, the BCP has given the UDC a six months ultimatum otherwise it leaves the coalition for good. The 2024 election is two years away and the BCP is not just making the same mistakes but more grievous ones. Saleshando says BCP members long warned the party against joining the UDC and now consider the decision a mistake. He said mistakes are common and to make a mistake is human.
The suspended UDC vice president also says the UDC is “seemingly in a mode of self-destruction”. “Batswana were looking to the UDC for the change they so desperately need and are frustrated by the developments within the UDC as they unfold,” he told members at his party's National Conference in Mahalapye last month. He indicated that some are asking for the BCP to compromise on its calls for good governance, democratization and accountability. Saleshando strongly cautioned against acceding to calls to treat good governance lightly as an issue over which the BCP may be happy to compromise. He apologized to all Batswana who have been pinning their hopes on greater unity as a positive prospect for change of government. “Recent developments within the opposition collective have pointed to greater disunity.
In the main, the disunity stems from our acrimonious relationship with the Botswana National Front (BNF),” he highlighted. Even after that meeting with UDC and BNF president Boko a day before the BNF elective congress and the BCP national conference, Saleshando is at a stage where he is not keen on reconciliation with Boko or Botswana People’s Party (BPP) President Motlatsi Molapise.
Saleshando has made up his mind on BCP quitting the UDC.
The former Leader of Opposition (LoO) has often indicated that as the BCP they cannot work with unbelievers. He says BNF is trying to do the impossible by resurrecting the ‘dead’ BPP whose president cannot even win a council seat against an independent candidate. But as the BCP paves its way out of the UDC one could argue that the five vote difference at the recent Moselewapula by-elections shows the might of the BCP and Alliance for Progressives (AP) coalition, but when it comes to underestimating the people’s project, no one is doing it more deliberately than the BCP.
Boko told delegates at their party congress recently that the BNF has worked for parties like BCP more than their own. “Sometimes when we help them they get the needed help because we put our strength and resources into aiding them. We do that to build unity and most of the time after crossing the bridge issues start to unfold. They start to become full of themselves and arrogant,” he indicated.
He indicated that as the UDC they have seen these challenges both in 2019 and 2014. Looking back, after the 2014 general election, Boko who has often been accused of fixating his eyes on building the UDC and neglecting his own party highlighted that Batswana want opposition parties to work together. “The voters chose UDC because of what it stands for. UDC as a party is premised on bringing opposition parties to effect regime change. However, as long as the BCP continues to stay out of the UDC, change of government which the nation is yearning for as shown by the results will demand more effort than it would otherwise be the case.
If all the opposition parties had been under the UDC in these elections, the BDP would be the opposition,” said Boko at the time. History shows that no opposition party can win the general election on their own and coming together to campaign against the extension of BDP’s rule has been the only sensible option for opposition parties.
As the storm threatens to disturb the UDC project less has been done to help smooth the inevitable differences between the warring BCP and BNF both of which form a tri-party coalition alongside BPP. The UDC has so far not been particularly effective in ironing out technical disputes on politically sensitive issues in the coalition.
The issue has absorbed too much time and emotional energy and the two parties are failing get their act together. Although the opposition bloc still needs to convince voters that a change in government is needed, the parties are in a much better position now than in their fragmented state before the UDC was formed ten years ago. But now it all lies with the BCP as they leave the UDC to forge a relationship with the AP.