BDP pays the price

Ryder Gabathuse | Monday August 8, 2022 06:00

On the surface, the ruling party seems more united than ever, but the results of the recent 14 council by-elections held since post 2019 general election tell a story of a party diametrically in disarray and on a free fall.

Well resourced as the BDP was and is, it has so far managed to win only three of a possible 14 vacant council seats. This is uncharacteristic of the BDP. Something is definitely wrong.

This is possibly the result of a weak secretariat and warring party leadership that continue to sideline its secretary-general. It has been a perilous political journey for the BDP and with the 2024 general election around the corner, it may be a tough spell ahead for the Masisi-led ruling party.

On the other side, the party’s hoi polloi could be sending a clearer message to its headship that it was not doing enough. To the combination of President Masisi and Vice President Slumber Tsogwane who also doubles as party chairperson, this could be an indictment on them as wheels continue to go off.

They are beaten by the ailing Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) at a time when the opposition coalition is grappling with internal issues that saw the Botswana Congress Party (BCP) a key partner, contemplating exiting the coalition and contesting against the UDC candidate in the weekend by-election.

The results speak a lot including the possible ‘weaknesses’ of the Masisi/Tsogwane combination at the helm of one of Africa’s longest ruling parties. The BDP has been in power since 1966 with a signal of a steady fall of its popular vote.

As the head of the ruling party secretariat, Balopi was seemingly on top of his game at the inception, amongst others ensuring that his party remained in power in the 2019 polls, when the marauding opposition combined forces posed a serious threat to unseat the BDP.

The UDC led by advocate, Duma Boko, was for the first time (in 2019) well resourced and ready to take the ruling party head on but got a shock when the opposition was uprooted from its urban-based presence especially in Gaborone and its environs. Although the UDC would later cry foul that the elections were rigged, Balopi is certainly credited to have led his party to the unexpected victory sweeping all the constituencies in Gaborone and its surrounding.

Prior to the 2019 general election, the BDP suffered a major split that saw the formation of the former president, Ian Khama-patronised Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) – a party whose base is mainly in the heartland of the country.

In the beginning, the BDP seemed to dismiss the BPF as a ‘clown’ of a party whose impact will seemingly not be worrisome at all and only to get a shock as the BPF nearly uprooted the BDP from its traditional stronghold of the Central District or CDC as it is popularly known.

The BPF would play a kingmaker role in many constituencies in the Central District aiding the UDC to its first ever victory (since 1966) in many constituencies in the vast CDC including Shoshong, Palapye, Sefhare-Ramokgonami, Bobirwa, Mahalapye-East and West amongst other assists.

Kagelelo Kentse, the BDP spokesperson this week bemoaned troubles bedevilling his party. He explained that at the weekend by-election in Moselewapula like others that they have lost, the BDP was faced with both internal and external factors that robbed it of possible victory.

External factors according to Kentse’s observation are that, “the UDC spent a lot of money on by-elections. What we have also noticed is, a lot of vote-buying was just done publicly and as the BDP we can’t go into that.” He indicated that the UDC wants to prove that they can win by-elections by hook or crook.

He conceded that among internal factors, the BDP went into the weekend by-election and others previously, not so united and these issues will simply play themselves out and go a long way in robbing the party of possible victory.

From Ledumadumane, Bophirima West and now Moselewapula by-elections, the BDP was rocked by reports of internal strife that saw party cadres in some instances de-campaigning their very own candidate, instead of working together as a unit for a common purpose.

Kentse would further stress that most of their troubles are internal and conceded they have a lot of work to do as a party to normalise the situation.

In a recent interview, Kentse told Mmegi that the political atmosphere was proving to be toxic after losing badly last year when his party won only three council by-elections out of the possible 11.

Kentse had said that they might sound like a broken record to be blaming the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on their accelerated losses of by-elections in a short space of time. He feels that the results are a reflection of depressed voters who are seemingly all out to punish the ruling party.

“It seems the voters who trusted us with their votes previously need motivation of some sort now to continue with us,” he explained.

He, however, highlighted that the BDP takes the losses seriously as according to him, it is the case of voters giving them some signal to seriously introspect and get to the bottom of matters.

He considers the country to be experiencing a crisis of some sort as taxes are generally up, fuel is up, electricity tariffs are up, “and people are definitely angry at all this and it seems it’s protest time from the masses and they are hitting us where it hurts the most now”.

“Surely, it’s the effects of COVID-19 that are hitting hard on the masses who are already grappling with unemployment and other societal ills and as the party in government, no escape for us, we are punished,” bemoaned Kentse who promised that his party was doing everything possible to cushion the effects of the societal ills.

Moeti Mohwasa, the spokesperson for the UDC was recently impressed by the opposition resurgence, as the coalition partners are doing very well and set to usher in the glory days.

In Mohwasa’s own words, the 2019 results of the general election did not represent the feelings of the people now. He is convinced that it is becoming even clearer that the BDP did not win the elections by the margin they did. In other words, he says the BDP victory was simply a result of ‘rigging’.

The UDC has not reached where the party leadership wishes it could be, but the party spokesperson is elated that all indications are that people have confidence in the UDC project now.

He seems to concur with BDP’s Kentse that it is the societal ills dogging the nation that are responsible for the backlash that sees the BDP duly punished. He says it is a good thing for the opposition to be voted ahead of the ruling BDP, but wished there could be unity in diversity in the opposition so that, “we could reach a point where we have a working relationship with the hope that everything shall fall into place.”

Mohwasa has also issued a press statement this week vehemently rubbishing reports that his party was involved in vote buying at the weekend by-election. Political commentator and University of Botswana academic, Adam Mfundisi says post 2019 general election, the BDP has performed dismally in the by- elections held to date.

Since the 1990s, voters have indicated their desire to change government, but the opposition bloc derailed people’s wishes and desires.

Posited Mfundisi: “The BDP is losing grip on political power, and it is still governing partly due to incumbency factors, which allow it to use legal, constitutional, and political instruments to stay in power. Throughout the political history of Botswana, the BDP administrations exploited lacuna in the Constitution and other instruments to wade off any challenge from opposition parties.”

Mfundisi, who is also UB politics and administrative studies lecturer, says the BDP has used and abused State power to stay in office through seemingly free, but not fair electoral processes.

“The use or abuse of State resources, structures, institutions, and personnel to campaign in elections has been the hallmark of subsequent BDP administrations. But pre, during, and post 2019 general election, we witnessed unprecedented use or abuse of State power to win elections,” the UB academic added.

He accused the BDP-led government to have deployed the criminal justice and security systems to thwart opposition threat to the BDP.

He cited the police, the Directorate of Intelligence and Security (DIS), the Directorate on Corruption and Economic Crime (DCEC), the Botswana Unified Revenue Services (BURS), and the aviation authority CAAB, as some of the State apparatus that were unleashed on the opposition.

Spurious allegations against opposition leaders particularly those of the UDC, Mfundisi indicated, were peddled by the State institutions and amplified by government media, Radio Botswana, Btv, and Daily News.

He is adamant that the UDC still enjoys good will from the voters. He however, sent a caution: ”The leadership must show commitment to democratic principles including ethical and accountability management. Political posturing and conflicts need to be avoided and resolved sooner rather than later. Voters in Botswana are thirsty for change and the UDC offers credible alternative to the moribund BDP, which has run out of ideas, but arrogance and narcissistic behaviour.”

He added that the cult of leadership is making the BDP to be unattractive to the voters. The UDC Manifesto toward the 2019 general election articulated the needs, interests, priorities, and aspirations of the people.

The BDP is averse to transformation that would see Botswana attaining socio-economic and political development.

“Televisation of Parliamentary sessions has exposed the BDP lack of grand ideas to move this country to higher levels. Paucity of ideas from the BDP government and its MPs has become apparent and in the public domain. The BDP MPs display unethical and unaccountable behaviour in Parliament,” noted the academic.

He observed that the opposition collective is presenting policy proposals that jell well with the masses and voters hear first hand articulations of MPs. “People’s power is being displayed in the by-elections as by-elections do not present opportunity for electoral fraud and rigging as opposed to the general polls,” Mfundisi said in conclusion.