Analysts doubt BCP commitment to UDC
Chakalisa Dube | Monday July 25, 2022 06:00
One of the key decisions made was the expulsion of five legislators (MPs) who recently defied the party by attending an Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) parliamentary caucus against the wishes of the BCP leadership.
Leading to the conference there were already indications that the BCP will expel the five ‘rebellious’ MPs being Dithapelo Keorapetse, Onneetse Ramogapi, Dr Never Tshabang, David Tshere and Kenny Kapinga.
At a UDC party caucus, Keorapetse was elected Leader of Opposition (LoO) replacing BCP president Dumelang Saleshando. That was days after Saleshando and BCP secretary-general Goretetse Kekgonegile were suspended from the coalition national executive committee (NEC) of the UDC.
However, the only decision that came as a surprise was the BCP’s decision to remain in the UDC for six months with the hope that its demands will be addressed. One of the demands is that governance challenges in the coalition be dealt with urgently.
Lifting the suspensions of BCP members in the UDC NEC is also one of the things that the former is advocating for. The BCP also wants the UDC to engage an independent facilitator to help address governance concerns in the coalition. The party also wants the UDC to go for an elective congress. The challenge is that it might not be easy for other parties in the coalition Botswana National Front (BNF) and Botswana People’s Party (BPP) to concede to the requests of the BCP.
Many had thought that a BCP conference would endorse a decision to totally quit the UDC. Even the posture of Saleshando at the conference before resolutions were made leaned more towards the BCP exiting the coalition.
However, what really baffles the mind is why did the BCP, a party that looked destined to endorse the idea to quit the UDC at its conference suddenly changed its position? The other question is, was the BCP position taken out of sincerity or it was an act of political gamesmanship?
The mood on the ground at the conference suggested that the decision to remain in the UDC for six months was not taken in good faith. It was a real act of political gamesmanship. It is apparent that the decision was taken to just cause confusion in the coalition. At the conference, it was clear that BCP members disliked other parties in the UDC a great deal. The enmity between the BCP and others in UDC particularly the BNF is growing by the day.
BCP members continued snarling and disparaging their UDC partners even moments after a resolution was taken for the party to remain in the coalition. There was no suggestion that the BCP anti UDC chorus will soon slow down as the warring parties explore ways to reconcile in the next six months. Such posture from BCP members highlight that the decision to remain in UDC was taken in bad faith. To some extent they (BCP members) know that their demands will not be met. That is why it is not far-fetched to assume that at their best, they just want to use the next six months as the last opportunity to embarrass as well frustrate the UDC.
The other dynamic is that the BCP might be pushing for its expulsion from the UDC. To a certain degree, the move to expel the five MPs and then choosing to remain in the UDC might have been taken as a well calculated one to annoy the UDC leadership ultimately pushing it to dismiss the BCP. If the BCP continues sharing the same space with expelled MPs the atmosphere will inevitably not be cordial which is why the UDC might be forced to expel the former.
The BCP has also decided to proceed with opposition cooperation talks as a sole entity instead of making its submissions through the coalition.
This to some extent is an indication that the BCP does not want to remain in the UDC and is only buying time by continuing to cause misunderstandings in the coalition, before bidding farewell. The UDC is against the BCP approach to cooperation talks. It is a given that should the BCP not change its position on cooperation talks, the environment in the coalition will certainly remain turbulent, something the former might be rooting for.
The other conclusion that one can draw based on the dynamics at the conference is that BCP members might have been wary of possible public backlash. That is why they decided to temporarily remain in the coalition. At the conference Saleshando disclosed that he has opened reconciliation talks with UDC leader Duma Boko.
“Both of us, the BCP and BNF president, agree that where possible, no stone should be left unturned in protecting the gains we made in the 2019 general elections,” Saleshando said in a speech at the conference after confirming that he has opened reconciliation talks with Boko.
The BCP knows that its demands in the UDC will not be easily met. However, leaving at a time when key parties (BNF and BCP) in the coalition have opened talks in an attempt to heal their divisions would have portrayed the BCP as a disingenuous organisation.
Political analyst Kealeboga Dipogiso believes that there is no room for reconciliation among UDC parties. He believes that the BCP wants to use the next six months to cause more confusion in the coalition and leave it a very weaker entity.
“ The idea is to frustrate and weaken the UDC. They want to leave the UDC as a soiled entity as possible so that they outwit it at the next general elections,” he said.
He added, “ There are major underlying issues that that stem from ideological and historical differences between the BNF and BCP which makes it difficult for the two parties to work together. The BCP views the BNF as a failure. On the other hand, the BNF views the BCP as a threat to its existence. The BNF sees the BCP as a party that wants to lay claim to everything.”
Dipogiso who is Political Science Lecture at the University of Botswana (UB) is convinced that some of the BCP's demands are not attainable in a coalition arrangement. He posited that although the BCP’s demand for an elective congress is legitimate it is not attainable (in coalition) especially when there is no thorough process of selecting congress delegates.
“Elections in a coalition can ravage the weaker party,” he said.
He explained that it is clear that the BCP want to form a relationship with the Alliance for Progressives (AP) who also believe that the UDC is not habitable party.
In the same vein, another political analyst professor Zibani Maundeni says that the cooperation between the BCP and AP, which previously happened in Bophirima ward, is also an indication that the BCP is just buying time to leave the UDC to work with ‘like-minded’ opposition parties. The two parties are also working together at a by-election in Moselewapula, where the UDC has also fielded a candidate through BPP.
“The BCP has no commitment to remain in the UDC because it feels unwanted. The BCP should give the AP the guarantee that they can work together,” Maundeni said.