BCP’s UDC exit could undo historic feat
Mompati Tlhankane - Tsaone Basimanebotlhe | Monday July 4, 2022 06:00
For a party that was wounded in the 2014 general elections, BCP managed to find stability when it joined the UDC in 2018 and now that is about to be eroded away should the party leave the opposition coalition.
BCP made history in the 2019 general elections when it won 11 parliamentary seats under the stewardship of the UDC. Coincidentally, the number 11 is the same number of legislators who broke out from the Botswana National Front (BNF) in 1998 to form the BCP.
Now the BCP has a mammoth task of retaining the 11 constituencies and perhaps add more in 2024.
Looking at the fact that the youngest opposition party, Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF), were kingmakers in some of the constituencies that BCP won in the Central District it seems unlikely at this point that the BCP outside the UDC will be popular enough to overcome the traditional headwinds in two years time.
BCP president, Dumelang Saleshando and secretary-general, Goretetse Kekgonegile were suspended last week therefore the party is currently sitting on the burning coal with some legislators currently torn between Saleshando and others with president of UDC, Duma Boko who is also the BNF leader.
Some Members of Parliament (MPs) are reported to have openly defied the BCP and have also decided to stay should the party opt to leave the UDC. The MPs are worried that without the UDC they don’t stand a chance of retaining their seats looking at the circumstances of 2019.
Speaking of circumstances, no one can dispute the influence of former president and BPF patron, Ian Khama’s magic in some of the constituencies that the BCP won in 2019.
History shows that BCP won these constituencies especially in the Central District for the first time and it was all thanks to the Khama magic as it helped de-campaign the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP). The split of UDC may affect the BCP in retaining some of these constituencies. This is so, because the BPF has since increased its membership in some of these areas. It looks like the kingmakers now want to be kings.
Under the UDC, the BCP could easily retain the constituencies because the BDP has been losing grip in the Central District and the latter has done nothing to revive its structures following the 2019 loss.
In the eyes of the layman, it seems like the BDP has thrown in the towel. The BCP exit from the UDC however might give the ruling party some ideas to wrestle back the constituencies from the opposition.
The math is not on the BCP’s side so let’s start with;
Bobonong
Even though the BCP has members in this area, on its own it has never won the area in its history. The party’s unwearied MP Taolo Lucas for a long time tried to wrestle the seat from the BDP but without success. This is the constituency that had eluded the incumbent legislator, Lucas, since 1998 and he finally managed to win it under the UDC ticket in the 2019 general elections. In 2019, Khama openly de-campaigned BDP in favour of the UDC candidate Lucas. Lucas won the seat with 8,953 votes while the BDP got 8,103 and Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD) was voted by 762 people. If the BCP wants to retain this constituency, it will have to work hard.
Sefhare/Ramokgonami
The opposition had never won this constituency since 1966 and for the first time, it made history by snatching the area from the ruling party. Even though the BCP membership has been slowly growing in the area, incumbent Dr Kesitegilwe Gobotswang could not have made it without the assistance of the Khama magic. The split of UDC can cause damage also to the BCP in this area. However, Gobotswang can only thrive if he works harder since his party has been strong in the area. In 2019, the UDC got 9,341 votes while BDP got 5,562 votes. Things could turn around only if BDP could re-group and become stronger again in the Central District.
Palapye
Lately the BPF has become stronger in Palapye, which is a threat to the BCP. If it decides to work with Alliance for Progressives (AP), then it might kiss the constituency goodbye. Palapye was a stronghold for the BDP despite the BCP’s growing membership. With the formation of BPF and Khama’s new alliance, everything changed and currently some people who used to support BDP and BCP have since joined BPF. Former Palapye and BDP MP Moiseraele Goya who switched sides to join the BPF poses a much bigger threat for the BCP and he is looking to wrestle the seat back this time under different colours. The area, which was previously under BDP’s Boyce Sebetela who is now the president’s Chief of Staff, is quite tricky therefore the incumbent Onneetse Ramogapi has a difficult choice to make and in the end it’s either UDC or BCP.
Mahalapye
West There is no doubt that the BCP cannot win this constituency if it leaves the UDC. This is a constituency that was for a long time held by the BDP under the late vice president, Mompati Merafhe. The latter stepped down as MP for Mahalapye West in 2012 and a by-election was held. It was retained by the BDP then under Bernard Bolele. Bolele at the time beat current MP David Tshere and BNF’s Abigail Mogalakwe to the position. Tshere recently revealed that he is as both loyal to Boko as he is to Saleshando because they are his presidents. He is amongst the BCP MPs who know that contesting in 2024 under lime colours will not be the wisest of all the decisions. This is one of the constituencies that believe in Khama. Anyone who has Khama’s blessings and the BPF support will retain the area again. It used to be the area that BDP used to pride itself about. Since Khama’s defection, it eroded all the glory of the reds in the area. The residents now prefer the royal blue colour (UDC) or the yellowish one (BPF). In 2014 general elections, UDC got 6,016 votes while the BDP garnered 3,925 votes.
Selibe-Phikwe
East It is clear the BCP made aggressive inroads in Selibe-Phikwe in 2019, but it had been difficult for the party to win the area from the BDP before then. This is a constituency that was previously held by BDP stalwart Nonofo Molefhi who recently announced his intention to challenge Vice President Slumber Tsogwane for the BDP chairmanship. Molefhi clung to the position in 2009, seeing-off a spirited challenge from both the BCP and the BNF. It is unclear if Molefhi, who lost the Bulela Ditswe to Amogelang Mojuta in 2018, will contest for the position again. Currently, there is no doubt that BCP is a bit stronger under incumbent Kgoberego Nkawana. However the split could make damage as some of the sympathisers who voted them due to opposition unity might withdraw their votes.
The area is dynamic since it has a vastly different demographic composition, compared to Dithapelo Keorapetswe’s Selibe-Phikwe West. In the East, Botshabelo, an extensive location of mostly low-income earners, was reportedly a key factor in deciding voters in the area. In 2019, BDP had 2,857 votes to UDC’s 3,903. While no one knows what the outcome of the 2024 general elections history suggests that the BCP might lose its constituencies should it exit the UDC.
The fact that the BCP were so successful shouldn’t be surprising looking at the fact that the Khama magic did its work. There is already some sort of backlash against the BDP in the Central District, but that is not enough for the BCP considering they could be contesting against the UDC, BDP and possibly BPF in 2024. Broadening it out a little bit, the chance that any of these seats could be retained is small, if history is any guide.
Of course, there may be some surprising results in 2024 even if BCP opts out of the UDC because sometimes history doesn’t always hold. But if it does, the BCP’s chances of retaining the 11 constituencies look slim.