Large population is panacea for socio-economic progress
Solly Rakgomo | Monday May 23, 2022 04:11
The release of the results sparked public debates especially on social media with a large number of commentators decrying the slow population growth in Botswana as compared to other African countries. The majority of people attributed the general decline in population growth to “fertility” and “mortality” rates that the country registered in the past 10 years since the last census in 2011.
In fact, Botswana is one of the lowest in terms of population size in both the region and Africa at large. In my observation on some conversations by locals as they reflected on the census results, some proponents of large populations cited various reasons why they think Botswana can make some serious strides in socio-economic development provided it has a large population.
Proponents of this school of thought argue that more people lead to higher economic growth and that these are the people that will be able to produce more goods and that will in turn lead to higher tax revenues, which can be spent on public goods such as healthcare and environmental projects. The other line of thinking is based on economies of scale where farming and industry will greatly benefit. The argument is that with a large population, food output and manufacturing output will grow faster.
Other people reason that large populations lead to human capital and the probability of finding a genius like Einstein, Beethoven, etc increase and such exceptional people can greatly contribute to both the technological and cultural masterpieces, which enrich our lives. All in all, proponents state that population growth produces some positives such as expansion of tax bases, increased consumer spending at local businesses, as well as benefits derived from innovations by cultures seeking to keep up with growing populations.
From such discussions on this issue of population growth, I observed that not many reflections were made on the downside of large populations especially in a developing state within the continent of Africa, which is characterised by gross economic mismanagement.
Large populations do not usually bring all the positive socio-economic outcomes as we are made to believe. It must, however, be noted that the problem of population is not simply a problem of numbers but issues of human welfare and of development. Large populations can have some serious consequences for the welfare of citizens especially in a developing state like Botswana. Development entails the improvement in people's level of living, which covers their incomes, health, education and general well-being as well as encompassing their self esteem, respect, dignity and freedom of choice.
It is against this background that a person can ask an important question about a large population on how the population within a country such as Botswana contribute to or detract from their chances of realising the goals of development, not only for the current generation but also for the future generations?
It is equally important to reflect on some more questions such as will a developing country such as Botswana be capable of improving the standard of living for the citizens in a large population? Does large populations increase or make it difficult to provide essential social services including housing, transport, sanitation and security?
Will employment opportunities be plentiful or we will just be content with just to keep unemployment levels from rising? When it comes to poverty alleviation, what are some implications of large populations among the poor citizens within a state for their chances of overcoming human misery of absolute poverty?
Will the food supply within a state and its distribution be sufficient not only to meet the needs of a large population but also to improve nutritional levels to the point where citizens can have access to an adequate diet? When it comes to improvement of health and education, with a large population will a country such as Botswana be able to extend the coverage and improve the quality of health of Batswana and educational systems so that every citizen can at least have a chance to secure adequate healthcare and basic education?
These are sobering questions that one needs to reflect upon when discussing the issue of large populations and their impact on the socio-economic and political landscape of many states in the developing world. It is quite very common that poor management of the economy characterises many states in the developing world especially from Africa.
Weak institutions have paved a perfect arena for poor governance anchored on corruption, nepotism, inequitable resource allocation, kleptocracy, lack of accountability by public officials and poor adherence to the rule of law. These inherent institutional weaknesses have rendered many states too weak to avail the basic needs such as land, housing, education, healthcare and other socio-economic services to the people.
For example, in Botswana the process of being allocated a piece of land by the Land Board takes more than 20 years, health and education infrastructure is very inadequate and unemployment levels among the youth are very high. One may wonder that if a government is struggling to provide some services to a small population, will it cope with such a responsibility in a large population? In that case we might see a large population as exacerbating poverty levels where the majority of people will be competing for land, housing and other opportunities that might create a national security concern especially with the high rate of youth unemployment.
A perfect example that can be used is Nigeria, which is Africa’s most populous state. Poor management of the economy through rampant corruption and bribery within such a large population has ramifications for political and social conflicts among different ethnic, religious, linguistic and social groups. This is because within these large populations, there is an increasing demand for governmental services in health, education, welfare and failure by government to provide these has contributed to violent aggression especially among the large proportions of young and unemployed populations who have little hope for a satisfactory future and these youths are a source of violent conflict, crime, terrorism and other social ills.
This is a serious lesson to Botswana that a large population requires a thorough socio-economic planning and sound management characterised by a culture of socio-economic and political inclusivity anchored on zero tolerance for corruption. Nothing short of that will result in a national security crisis.
The other impact of a large population is that it leads to uncontrolled urbanisation, which produces overcrowding, destitution, crime, pollution, etc. Overcrowding in many urban areas has produced slums in many countries. Notable examples are Kibera and Ajegule slums in Nairobi and Lagos respectively.
These slums have a combined population of close to two million people. They are both characterised by high rates of unemployment, extreme poverty and insecurity. These densely populated slums have few schools, lack access to clean water and residents suffer from various diseases caused by poor and lack of toilets. This is a sad reality about uncontrolled urbanisation as a result of a large population in a state fraught with gross economic mismanagement, corruption, inequitable distribution of resources, kleptocracy and other forms of political rascality from the leadership. This is what some proponents of high population in Botswana should reflect on as they ponder on this issue.
In summation, it is important for developing countries such as Botswana to ensure that population growth is coupled with good governance, equal distribution of wealth, socio-economic and political inclusivity, access to land and housing, etc. Anything other than that will prove evident that a large population will not bring any meaningful economic development and instead will cause massive unemployment. This will surely undermine the quality of life in Botswana. People must remember that a government’s responsibility extends beyond simply ensuring the survival of the population but must equally strive to provide people with a good life, one with dignity and for Botswana in its current situation, a large population is no panacea for socio-economic and political progress.