BDP could gain from UDC fracas
Mompati Tlhankane | Monday March 21, 2022 06:00
The ruling party has so far lost nine wards out of 12 to opposition parties in the recent by-elections. Now, the candidacy brawl at the Umbrella Democratic Party (UDC) between Botswana National Front (BNF) and Botswana Congress Party (BCP) might have given the BDP a new lifeline. The self-inflicted deep divisions in the opposition coalition could now have given the BDP the easiest way to hold on to the council seat. The ward became vacant after the former councilor for Bophirima, Kagiso Mongwaketse, passed on.
After fielding Onkemetse Mothei as the candidate for Bophirima ward by-election in the Gaborone Bonnington South constituency, the BDP has been confident that it will retain the ward it won in the 2019 general election. This confidence did not just come out of nowhere especially after a tough time at the polls recently. Just when everyone thought the BDP had finally lost ground, the many moving parts in the coalition came crumbling down when this week the BCP central committee (CC) announced that it does not recognise Mankie Sekete of the Botswana National Front (BNF) as the UDC candidate.
The BCP further announced that it would instead field its preferred candidate, Peter Mogapi using the party name and colours in the upcoming by-election. The failure of the UDC to agree on a candidate has opened up old wounds and shown that the coalition is now divided into different sects, factions, and interests. Over the years, the opposition scene has become a hallmark of an entity that goes into shambles whenever a general election nears. This UDC slippery mode when the finishing line nears is what the BDP thrives on and as the Bophirima ward by-election nears on April 9, the ruling party is now licking its wounds and readying to take this one.
Looking back, BNF, a party which is affiliated to the UDC, in 1998 suffered a huge setback when 11 legislators broke away to form the BCP. The BDP went on to win the 1999 general election and the BNF realised that factional strife does not pay. In 2014, the BCP pulled out of the coalition talks when it felt that the agreement between parties was not favouring it. This consequently cost the opposition parties the election, a loss which was mostly felt by the BCP. There is just something about opposition parties’ inability to iron out their differences. In 2019, Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD) infightings ultimately led to the formation of a splinter party. The Alliance for Progressives (AP) also cost the UDC the election after it (BMD) was expelled from the coalition. Internal strifes are the major undoing of the opposition parties so the BDP, which is not short of factionalism itself, has always found a way to turn the tides their way. BDP could gain from UDC confusion.
The BDP knows that opposition parties never bear the brunt of factionalism. It is no secret that the BDP has been troubled by issues of factionalism under the current President Mokgweetsi Masisi. But now, as Bophirima ward trouble brews more problems for the UDC, the BDP is already starting to capitalise on the opposition infightings. Even though the BDP spokesperson, Kagelelo Kentse recently told Mmegi that they are not focused on the internal battles in the UDC, the BDP is aware that the scuffle means split votes and with the latter, the BDP can easily amass enough votes to win and retain the ward.
At Bophirima ward in 2019, 1,964 people had registered to vote and only 1,621 cast their votes. In the end, the BDP garnered 731 votes, UDC got 437, AP had 333 while an independent candidate got 113. Of course, this time there will be many contingent factors but the BDP still stands to gain if the UDC fracas remains unsolved.
The BDP has outlined that it is aware that there is a possibility some voters might have relocated to other areas or outside Gaborone.
To show some seriousness, the BDP has been doing house-to-house campaigns by promising and urging their followers to continue unity and cooperation while the UDC fails to identify a candidate. The BDP also held their primary election in time to allow members to have enough time to campaign. People normally vote a party ticket in their belief that a particular political party will best represent their wishes but if the parties start fighting before elections like history has shown, issues of trust start to arise.
The UDC as a bloc of opposition parties does not just exist, contest elections, and offer voters electoral choices, it has a challenge to show interest to get enough votes to win and finally hold political office. The UDC is united by a common interest which is to remove the BDP from power but is now fighting for a single ward in a constituency they lost in 2019. The UDC has seen that it is hard for candidates to win in constituencies that lean to the BDP. Already the BDP is saying that what is happening at UDC clearly shows that the party cannot lead the country and cannot be entrusted with government. While the BDP is focused on selling their capable candidate and the BDP to the people of Bophirima, the UDC does not even have enough time to plan for the upcoming by-election.
The candidacy issues at Bophirima ward, which are likely to continue post elections, gives the BDP more ammunition. Consequently, the BDP will dominate the political arena, essentially reducing the by-elections and possibly other future elections to a one-horse race. Looking at Batswana’s electoral trend since 1965, voters consistently grant the lowest levels of trust to opposition parties.
Therefore, in the five-year interval between elections, opposition parties, instead of building trust, they give voters even more reason to distrust their entities. The UDC is on the cusp of falling apart and its best hope of avoiding such a fate is to get its act together to win over certain voters, especially the ones who have defected to the ruling party.
That is a dream that seems farfetched because there are too many contingent factors influencing electoral outcomes. The BDP says it will go all out to ensure that it retains the vacant Bophirima ward. Now, as the UDC Bophirima ward candidacy remain unresolved, its advantage to the BDP.