The shaky opposition coalition
Ryder Gabathuse | Monday March 21, 2022 06:00
To the ordinary people, it does not make sense at all that such a powerful tri-party arrangement like the UDC which continues to give the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) a run for its money could be entangled in such unforgivable political turmoil and be shaken to the core by just a single vacant council ward.
To many, there is more to the UDC partners’ warring than meets the eye. There are suggestions that the case of Bophirima ward could just be a tip of the iceberg with more trouble coming the way of the opposition coalition.
Differences over who has to contest a ward between the BNF and the BCP candidates ordinarily should not be a source of so much acrimony especially that the parties have entered into a written agreement to guide them in times of by-elections. There is also more to contest for in the future than to worry about a single vacant ward seat.
The relationship between the BCP and the BNF in particular was recently reduced to an exchange of a flurry of confusing letters about who is the right candidate. Social media was turned into a battlefield that saw coalition partners at war with each other with its misinformation instead of them staying true to an agreement they have entered upon. Literally, the partners were caught washing their dirty linen in public.
UDC spokesperson, Moeti Mohwasa, BNF information and publicity secretary Justin Hunyepa and BCP spokesperson Dr Mpho Pheko shared contradictory information.
At best, such a development is only akin to a marriage that is on the rocks with each party trying hard to justify its position.
At his party’s presser this week, BCP secretary-general, Goretetse Kekgonegile vehemently denied reports that the BCP was considering opting out of the coalition. The BNF’s preferred candidate is Mankie Sekete whilst the BCP fields Peter Mogapi at Bophirima ward. On the other hand, Kekgonegile acknowledged that the relationship was not working at all as partners in the coalition have not been in talking terms for a long time.
He was steadfast that the UDC leadership has failed to meet to preside over a suitable coalition candidate leaving the matter in the hands of individual parties to reach a conclusion on what they preferred. He acknowledged this was a recipe for disaster as it was going to split opposition votes.
Just between late last year and to date, the country held 12 council by-elections with the united opposition winning nine out of the possible 12 wards, a feat that was almost impossible in the past when parties contested as individuals with the resultant vote splitting.
Another coalition partner, the Botswana Peoples Party (BPP) is just helplessly watching as it has no strength to raise a voice. Motlatsi Molapise leads the BPP and it has a single legislator through defection and has contributed less than five councillors to the coalition. This leaves the BPP a weak partner whose voice is drowned by its weak strength in the partnership. The BCP has 11 legislators whilst the BNF has two with both parties having a good number of councillors.
In the latest episode, it boggles the mind that after raising hopes of many, the UDC project is set to experience a major shake up that might see the fortunes of the UDC taking a tumble. There is, however, hope that it (UDC) might redeem itself amid issues of mistrust that are set to cripple the project.
Empty opposition talks have often come as a disappointment to the followers of opposition politics who are yet to taste the power of united opposition. It will be another disappointment if the UDC could fail. The opposition bloc has been battling to unseat the BDP, but already it seems the opposition parties have a ‘false start’ as unity seems to be eluding them although they seem to have the wherewithal to turn the tables. Disagreements and differences of opinions, including mistrusts, have become so common when it comes to sharing constituencies and other crucial decisions ahead of the 2024 polls.
Three political parties in the last election joined hands under the ambit of the UDC and won 14 seats of the possible 57 constituencies in a first-past-the-post voting system.
Even when the BDP seems to be at its weakest and gripped by internal strife, the opposition seems to be still miles away from convincing possible voters that it is indeed ready as an alternative government. Individualism, which is preferred by some opposition parties, continues to rob the opposition collective of their dream.
In a previous interview, political analyst, Professor Zibani Maundeni held the view that Botswana has not generated sufficient conditions for the establishment of election winning coalitions. In his research paper entitled “Political Instability, Electoral Violence and Coalition Governments in Africa: The Basis for Successful Liberal Politics and the Failure of Coalitions in Botswana”, Maundeni said attempts by opposition parties to institutionalise their own cooperation through coalitions for winning elections have been problematic with visible and costly failures.
The paper focused on a case study on democratic Botswana. “Therefore, localised and without clear historical precedence in Africa, Botswana parties’ attempted coalitions for winning elections are having a hard time to take root and function.
Coalitions between Botswana opposition political parties have also been attempted but either collapsed or failed to win elections,” said Maundeni.
Without being specific to the UDC case, Maundeni had observed that the problem with the coalition is that opposition parties negotiating election-winning coalitions have based them on secrecy, elite orientation and disregard for the voting public.
He said Batswana prefer a coalition of opposition parties for purposes of winning elections but yet secrecy has always worked in favour of opposed internal elements to disrupt working together.
This expert view confirms the struggle opposition parties have been facing over the years, which has been exacerbated by mistrusts that continue to dog the opposition.
At one stage or another, the current parties holding talks had worked together and left scars, which will continue to haunt them.
In another recent interview, political analyst, Adam Mfundisi urged UDC parties to urgently resolve their differences.
Mfundisi, a University of Botswana (UB) politics and administrative studies lecturer, explained the importance of parties in the UDC to reconcile in order for them to maintain competitiveness in the country’s political landscape.
“In my humble submission, UDC problems and difficulties have to be dealt with decisively for a sustainable opposition. Competitive politics is a virtue rather than a vice. It is critical for political consolidation.
Therefore, the parties that make the UDC must resolve their differences as a matter of urgency,” Mfundisi told the opposition recently. “It is politically important to expose differences in order for deliberations and resolutions to take place. Strategic leadership demands ethical and visionary leadership.
Strategic leaders confront problems and admit difficulties and differences in order to develop effective strategies to resolve them.
And, ethical leadership demands recognition of the existence of potential problems and admit fault on their part. People respect and develop trust on truthful leaders,” the UB lecturer had said.
He also stated that the differences in the UDC were bound to come to the fore in the long run.
He was, however, quick to point out that the growing tension between the BNF and the BCP should be worrisome to the rank-and-file of the UDC because they can lead to severe instability of the coalition. The BCP is a splinter party from the BNF as 11 MPs broke away from the BNF in 1998 in Palapye after disagreements with the then BNF founding father, the late Kenneth Koma. The BCP won a single parliamentary seat in the 1999 general election.
Mfundisi, however, acknowledged that the BCP remains a vital cog in the UDC and cannot be wished away.
The BNF spokesperson, Hunyepa, is insistent that the BCP was never allocated Bophirima ward and as such, it does not have any legitimate claim to the ward, under the UDC.
“Sekete is the BNF candidate as it were in the 2019 general election. Everything said by the BCP is a lie,” insisted Hunyepa and stressed that the BNF was ready to put the BCP to a lie detector and prove them wrong.
He indicated that the BNF was not shocked by the confusion sown by the BCP. He observed: “It should also be noted that the BCP also caused a full blown out confusion in the recent Mogoditshane Ledumadune East ward by-election.
The BNF managed this ward in 2019 on behalf of the UDC represented by Simon Moipolai.
Out of the blue the BCP started posting their candidate on social media, conducted nocturnal house-to-house campaigns and attempted to wrestle the ward from the BNF.”