Elusive unity robs opposition
Ryder Gabathuse | Monday February 7, 2022 06:00
Every election year seems to be crunch time for the opposition parties to change government, a feat that is now proving to be difficult to achieve. It has been the case of so near yet so far away for the opposition as the BDP continued to stamp its authority on the polls, albeit with dwindling popular vote. In the last national polls, the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) made strong claims that the BDP had rigged the 2019 general election in certain selected areas mainly south of the Dibete cordon fence.
The UDC would later lose the petitions with costs. The BDP still holds the record of being the longest ruling party in the southern African region, having ruled the country since independence in 1966 continuously. Attempts by opposition parties to remove the ruling BDP from the grip of power have simply fluffed leaving the party popularly known as ‘Domkrag’ glued to power. It is apparent that the opposition parties will have to come up with a powerful winning formula by duly identifying an agreeable model of unity that will win them the requisite elections. The opposition collective has to also be seen to be displaying unity within its ranks.
Empty opposition talks have often come at a disappointment to the followers of opposition politics who are yet to taste the power of united opposition. It will be another attempt in the 2024 polls by the opposition bloc to unseat the BDP, but already it seems the opposition parties have a ‘false start’ as unity seems to be eluding them although they seem to have the wherewithal to turn the tables. The BDP won the 2019 general election with a popular vote of 52.65%, followed by the UDC via 35.89%, the AP 5.12% and BPF 4.41%.
It seems disagreements and differences of opinions, including mistrusts, have become so common when it comes to sharing constituencies and other crucial decisions ahead of the 2024 polls.
The late founding father of the opposition BNF, Kenneth Koma commonly used an analogy of his party comrades fighting for an animal carcass even before killing it, ending up scarring it away. The moral point here is that politicians have a tendency of fighting over constituencies or political positions without necessarily campaigning for such and expecting easy victory. Three political parties in the last election joined hands under the ambit of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) and won 14 seats of the possible 57 constituencies in a first-past-the post voting system. The trio is the Botswana Congress Party (BCP), BNF and Botswana Peoples Party (BPP). Other opposition parties, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) has four seats while the Alliance for Progressives (AP) has one and the duo was not part of the UDC as they contested the elections as individual entities. Even when the BDP seems to be at its weakest and gripped by internal strife, the opposition seems to be still miles away from convincing possible voters that it is indeed ready as an alternative government. Individualism, which is preferred by some opposition parties, continues to rob the opposition collective of their dream as numbers are very critical in the game of politics. BPF, a relatively new political player in the local political scene, does not seem committed to fully join the UDC as a coalition partner but it would rather prefer a loose pact.
The BPF is a splinter party from the ruling BDP just on the eve of the 2019 general election. It seems the party is taking it a bit slow as it finds it too soon for it to fully join the UDC whilst it has its own issues to grapple with. Other small parties view the UDC as a big entity with a potential of swallowing smaller parties like the BPF. There is a strong feeling that the BPF prefers a loose arrangement with the UDC, something that will offer the party an opportunity to grow and be able to decide further for fear that it could be swallowed by established entities like the UDC.
Responding to Mmegi enquiries, BPF spokesperson Lawrence Ookeditse was reluctant to delve into the position of the BPF in the ongoing opposition talks. “The party position has been submitted to the opposition forum which is chaired by Margaret Nasha and that’s all what I can share with the media at the moment,” was all Ookeditse could freely share before hanging up. He could not even take further questions treating the talks as sensitive. AP secretary-general Phenyo Butale speaking from Johannesburg could not shed light on his party’s preferred model of cooperation. “It will be against the letter and spirit of cooperation talks if I were to reveal our position paper.
Worse, such information might land in the wrong hands and it could affect the talks,” Butale said in a telephone interview yesterday. Speaking to Nasha this week on the form of models the parties the UDC is talking to (BPF and AP) prefer, she could not shed light referring all the enquiries to the UDC spokesperson, Moeti Mohwasa. Contacted for a comment, Mohwasa indicated that the parties are waiting to study the negotiations framework. As it is the case now, parties have submitted their papers for consideration. He was quick to indicate that they have been busy with the by-election, which concludes this weekend at Ledumadumane East as opposition parties.
Information gathered from sources within the talks however indicate that the AP, which performed badly in the 2019 general election is considering joining the UDC, albeit with its unspecified terms which could see the UDC less interested in such a relationship. As for the BPF, the writing is on the wall that the Central District-based party might take a bit of time before it joins the UDC other than sticking to its preferred loose arrangement type of pact. This therefore, means that come 2024, nothing might change in the current complexion of the country’s political landscape. In a previous interview, political analyst Professor Zibani Maundeni held the view that Botswana has not generated sufficient conditions for the establishment of election winning coalitions. In his research paper entitled "Political Instability, Electoral Violence and Coalition Governments in Africa: The Basis for Successful Liberal Politics and the Failure of Coalitions in Botswana", Maundeni said attempts by opposition parties to institutionalise their own cooperation through coalitions for winning elections have been problematic with visible and costly failures.
The paper focused on a case study on democratic Botswana. “Therefore, localised and without clear historical precedence in Africa, Botswana parties’ attempted coalitions for winning elections are having a hard time to take root and function. Coalitions between Botswana opposition political parties have also been attempted but either collapsed or failed to win elections,” said Maundeni. Without being specific to the UDC case, Maundeni observed that the problem with the coalition is that opposition parties negotiating election-winning coalitions have based them on secrecy, elite orientation and disregard for the voting public. He said Batswana prefer a coalition of opposition parties for purposes of winning elections but yet secrecy has always worked in favour of opposed internal elements to disrupt working together.
This expert view confirms the struggle opposition parties have been facing over the years, which has been exacerbated by mistrusts that continue to dog the opposition. At one stage or another, the current parties holding talks had worked together and left scars, which will continue to haunt them.