Mmegi

Race to the Union Building: South Africa’s coalition conundrum

Ramaphosa
Ramaphosa

Africa National Congress (ANC), the party credited for the liberation tussle against the racially oppressive apartheid regime, has lost governing majority in an electoral catch-22 result that has put the future of the 30-year-old democracy in a balance.

With no electoral winner, the nation heads for a coalition government which raises even more fears about the stability of such a government. In politics, they say there are no permanent enemies, and the adage will prove true soon, as parties that have been at wits' end are forced by the electorate to join hands and form a collation government. The ANC emerged from the country's May 29 election with just 40.2% of the vote, down from 57.5% five years ago. The drop signifies a diminishing popularity vote for the ANC as it has been saddled with corruption accusations, poor service delivery and more recently frequenting power cuts which seem to have infuriated South African citizens. Addressing the nation on the electoral results recently, President Cyril Ramaphosa said that South Africans had voiced their choice, that they want political parties to merge and work together for the betterment of the country. But the devil is going to be in the details, the merging of different political parties with different ideologies poses significant stumbling blocks to coalition negotiations.

"Our people expect all parties to work together within the framework of our Constitution and address whatever challenges we encounter peacefully and in accordance with the prescripts of our Constitution and the rule of law,’’ he said. ANC-DA coalition The ANC has more bargaining power with its 40% voter’s percentage and will want to hang onto power and lead coalition talks. The first option may be to consider striking a deal with the DA — traditionally its main opponent. A coalition of SA`s prominent and poll leading parties could be more stable than partnerships with newer, more radical formations. Both parties are also more conservative economically than the MK Party and the EFF, which espouse left-leaning policies. The DA recently announced that it would commence talks with the ANC in an effort to block what some have described as a “doomsday coalition” between the ANC, EFF and MK Party. DA leader, John Steenhuisen, recently told international media that “I, too, am a father to three young daughters. And, like millions of other South Africans, I do not want them to grow up in a country run by a party like MK, that wants to abolish the Constitution which so many fought and died for, that wants to subvert the Judiciary, and that plans to expropriate all private property and nationalise the Reserve Bank.”

The DA has set up a high-level team to manage talks with the ANC The DA enjoys popularity support predominantly from the white racial base of South Africa, and is lead by free market protectionism ideologies. The ANC on the other hand is a party founded on the bedrock of enforcing the freedom charter, and has won the past elections through selling a black empowerment policy to the polity. The two ideologies are oil and water and a coalition of the two will put the ANC between a rock and a hard place and may harm its support from the “black South Africans”. South Africans have failed to make the bridge of seeing the DA as a by-racial party seeking to advance South Africa even when the party was led by a black South Africa, Mmusi Maimane. ANC- MK The ANC's other option is to form a coalition with uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), which was arguably the biggest winner of the election by securing third spot with 15% of the vote in the first election it contested. But it is demanding a fresh poll, alleging that it got even more votes but the final result was rigged. The electoral commission has rejected the allegation, and MK has not yet presented any evidence for its claim. The chasm between the duo is wide, wider than with any other party, partly because of the personal animosity between former president Jacob Zuma and Ramaphosa, who succeeded him as the country's leader. One of the demands of the MK is that it wants Rampahosa out, and it demands the overthrowing of the current Constitution. These demands will be difficult to meet because of the instability they pose to the functionality of any new government. Additionally far left extremist demands will render negotiations talks absolute between this two.

However, the two are lovers that have fallen out with the possibility of a chance to kiss and make up. ANC-EFF-IFP The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), which seeks the expropriation of land from minority white farmers without compensation, has recently revealed that it was open to a deal with the ANC. Party president, Julius Malema, recently told international media during an election update that they were open to negotiating with the ANC.

“We want to work with the ANC because the ANC, when compromised, they are not arrogant,” he said. However, business leaders and investors have expressed wariness at the possibility of an ANC-EFF coalition because of the EFF’s leftist positions. The IFP, the country’s fifth-largest party, has said it too was open to talks with the ANC. Analysts have labelled this as a dooms day’s coalition because of the far left extremist policies involved in such a coalition.

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