On October 30, 2024, voters in Botswana ousted then ruling party, BDP, handing the presidency to human rights lawyer, Duma Boko, of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC). It was the first time after 58 years that the BDP tasted defeat at the polls. Following the party’s humiliating defeat to the UDC-a coalition of the Botswana National Front (BNF), Botswana People’s Party (BPP) and Alliance for Progressives (AP)-some members of the public and the academia posited that the BDP’s loss may have sounded its death knell. The former ruling party was soundly beaten by the new president Boko’s UDC winning only four out of 61 National Assembly seats on offer.
The UDC has won 36 parliamentary seats followed by the Botswana Congress Party (BCP), 15 seats and, Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) won five seats respectively. One seat was won by an independent candidate. Some analysts have blamed mounting economic grievances, high unemployment rate particularly amongst young people, as one of the BDP’s downfall. Former president Mokgweetsi Masisi later conceded defeat in a move that was hailed worldwide as a show of Botswana’s mature democracy. In the aftermath of the BDP’s defeat, University of Botswana (UB) political observer, Professor Zibani Maundeni, said the prospects of the former ruling party making a comeback were slim and will largely depend on how the UDC performs in its first term in power. Maundeni’ sentiments were echoed by another UB political analyst, Adam Mfundisi, who said Botswana economy has collapsed mainly due to rampant corruption, maladministration and impulsive spending. “The demise of the BDP has sent the party to political oblivion. No liberation and/or independence political parties in Africa have ever resurrected after defeat. The BDP is joining Kanu (Kenya), Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), Angola, United National Independence Party (UNIP), Zambia, and others, at the political graveyard,” he said.
“There are few opportunities for it to rise again... BDP leadership displayed a high level of arrogance of power which annoyed many voters leading to its demolition at the polls. This has been an irreparable damage to the monstrous BDP.” However in the midst of all these speculations, secretary general of the party Kavis Kario, told Mmegi on Thursday that it is still premature to write the BDP off. “As we speak, the Cabinet has not been completely formed. Parliament has not yet convened and I do not know what informs the minds of those who say the BDP will not bounce back. To me, talk of the extinction of the BDP is just conjecture. We first need to assess the extent to which the BDP will regroup, reorganise and refocus, the kind of the new leader it will have before passing judgments,” Kario said. “If the new leader of the BDP is a unifier who will also adjust and revitalise all the party structures, from the bottom to the top, then I am of the view that the party has good prospects of making a strong showing in the 2029 elections. If the new party leader and those who will be elected into various leadership positions of the party work very well with critical stakeholders such as trade unions, then it is difficult for now to write the BDP off. Nothing has just started.” Kario added that for obvious reasons, BDP members are not happy about how the party performed in the just ended elections and on the ground they want changes to happen in the leadership of the party.
“This on its own shows positive energy that our members want their party to redeem itself. They want the party to adapt to the current situation and regroup, reorganise and refocus. Were it not for the current First Past the Post System, the BDP could be the second biggest party in the country after the UDC. Numbers show that the BDP was voted by many people after the UDC,” said Kario.
