Political analyst, Adam Mfundisi acknowledges that just like in 2019 Boko has successfully created a sense that the election of the UDC into power will mark a new dawn for Botswana. He has however, warned that a loss by the UDC might throw the party into oblivion. “Any dismal performance by the UDC would be disastrous albeit allegations of electoral fraud and rigging,” Mfundisi said.
He explained that the coalition might suffer disintegration as it did after the 2019 polls should it fail to win state power or lose dismally.
“ Other political parties (in the coalition) may question lack of intra and inter party democracy in the UDC and link it to the failure of the party. For the UDC to renew itself it needs radical transformation premised on competitive elections for leadership positions. Or alternatively, transformed into a political outfit. Boko may face the boot if the UDC fail to petform well in the polls,” he said.
Mfundisi said that he wishes that this year’s General Election will be clean so that the UDC and its leadership does not lean on electoral malpractices should it lose.
“The best party must win the elections without State interference and manipulation,” Mfundisi said. The UDC president Duma Boko has been very optimistic than ever that the opposition coalition made up of the Botswana People’s Party (BPP), the Botswana National Front (BNF) and Alliance for Progressives (AP) will convincingly win this year’s General Election, billed for October 30, and inevitably take State power from the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP).
Over the past few months, Boko has been running a vigorous campaign, touching on issues that resonate deeply with Batswana, from strong economic reforms to employment creation targeting the youth, as well as addressing abject poverty through well thought policies. His promise for change has drawn passionate support from Batswana. Just like at the 2019 General Election, the UDC campaign has appeared organised and well resourced. Unlike in 2019 Boko’s demeanour in public especially in rallies and when giving media interviews appears to be well measured.
He has hardly attacked any of his opponents. He has even been encouraging UDC members and sympathisers to shy away from using obscene language against opponents.
“ There are those who will attack the UDC on the campaign trail. But you should shy away from retaliating. Our focus should be more on selling the UDC policies to Batswana and winning the General Election,” Boko said during a UDC rally in Tatisiding over the weekend. Perhaps, he has learnt a lesson from the 2019 General Election. Then, there was growing sentiment that the UDC lost the General election partly because of a prevalent narrative that Boko was relatively elite and often launched unnecessary attacks on his opponents.
During the 2019 General Election, the UDC won 15 seats but the anticipation is that the party will go beyond its traditional strongholds. Over the weekend in Tatisiding, Boko also appeared very optimistic that he has made inroads in terms of appealing to all kind of voters from those in urban centres, BDP’s rural strongholds, and in new constituencies that emerged after the delimitation exercise.
Some pundits believe that the UDC’s chances at this year’s polls have been boosted by the growing perception that there are those who believe that the BDP’s ratings have plummeted since 2019.Critics of the ruling party say that it promised voters numerous progressive policies meant to create jobs (among others) to no avail and has promoted corruption in government.
The failed constitutional amendment bill has also been frequently cited as one of the key failures of President Mokgweetsi Masisi’s leadership. The constitutional amendment was rejected because a sizeable number of Batswana thought the proposed amendments were not progressive. It was also thought that the constitutional review process and its commissioners represented the narrow political interests of the ruling BDP. Masisi maintains that his government has done well in areas such as infrastructure development and is on track to fully diversify the country’s economy from too much reliance on diamonds among others.
Perhaps, what can deter the UDC from attaining State power is the factionalism emanating from the allocation of constituencies and wards for this year’s General Election. Some parties in the coalition especially the BPP and AP have expressed unhappiness with the manner in which some wards and constituencies were allocated. But others argue that that infighting or factionalism within the UDC is not peculiar to it and all political parties in Botswana are afflicted by factional politics.
Meanwhile, political analyst Zibani Maundeni partly shares sentiments by Mfundisi but predicts that there will be no outright winner at this year’s General Election.
“ I do not see any party getting the required number of parliamentary seats to win State power. There will be a hung Parliament, meaning that parties will have to form a coalition government. If the UDC becomes part of a coalition government this could mitigate any embarrassment linked to a poor performance in the General Election,” he said.
