The sad reality on the ground however is that BNF is divided over this. Yes, they have done a brilliant job of controlling the potential fallout as a result of this but it cannot be denied that Boko’s political future is closely intertwined with that of the Umbrella. There can be little doubt that quite a few BNF leaders have been conspicuous by their absence at Umbrella talks and how they have really slowed down in talking about it. This while commendable cannot be a good thing. That the vice president has gone on record saying he prefers a pact with BCP is also a point to constantly remember. Boko needs the Umbrella to work for him to survive. As erudite as he is he will have very little room to manoeuvre at the next BNF elective congress. The daggers will be out for him and it is doubtful he can survive. While the BNF has come out looking cleaner than all it opposition counterparts from the failed unity talks, the tragedy of it is that a schism was caused within the party.
There is very little that Boko can lay claim to have done for BNF other than the Umbrella talks. Boko has no big idea for BNF. He appears to be running the party purely on the force of his character. He was to be the moderniser; there is no sign of any paradigm shift within the BNF. Boko was to be the man who would give BNF new direction. There is little evidence to suggest that he is doing this. In short, the only thing that appears to be Boko’s passion is unity talks and this is not necessarily a good thing. Should Umbrella 2 talks fail, BNF will find itself in a weaker position. How much time will they have to mobilise their followers. How is Boko in particular going to explain to hard-core BNF activists his lovey dovey relationship with the former enemy BMD? This cannot be taken lightly. As much as it is appreciated that Boko is dedicated to the Umbrella, something that his fellow urbanites no doubt understand, it is less clear whether rural BNF supporters will get to understand the relationship. This should be especially worrisome for BNF as BCP will be on a war path and making these points all the time. Do not be surprised to see BNF losing a huge chunk of its rural and peri urban support to the BCP. And this struggle will fall squarely on Boko’s shoulders.
There can be little doubt that in the freedom square where anything goes, BNF activist will struggle to explain some of these decisions to mafronta and all the while BCP will be gleefully exposing all who would listen. It is all well and fine for Boko to be the opposition unity champion; BMD supporters love him and the sort of plaudits he receives from the BMD supporters on social media show the extent of his popularity at the moment. That BMD members laud Boko maybe even more than their own leaders should be a source of concern if not embarrassment for Boko. These are the sort of things that can come back to haunt him. Indeed they just might even if the Umbrella succeeds.
It remains to be seen how Boko and the BNF - not known for being particularly media savvy will deal with the Umbrella whether it succeeds or not. However for Boko, to have any sort of meaningful legacy, he needs the Umbrella to succeed. At least he will have something to refer to have his creation in the BNF when the time to elect new regime arrives. It is doubtful that even his very impressive oratory skills will save him then.
