That the BNF has recaptured the seat is not surprising if we have to consider that the constituency has always been their stronghold, as the Head of the University of Botswana’s Democracy Research Project, Dr Zibani Maundeni pointed out in the Botswana Guardian (Friday 21 October 2005). The figures outlined above in relation to the 2004 general elections could be looked at from two perspectives: 1) that the BNF has increased the margin from 621 to 1393, or 2) that the BNF’s share of votes remained constant whereas the BDP slipped by about 1000 votes.
If we are to look at it from the point of view that the BNF increased its margin, from 621 to 1393, the euphoria that the combined opposition memorandum of understanding between opposition Parties did bear fruit is justified. This is also considering that generally in a by election, not many people go out to vote as in a general election.
As for the BDP, that the BNF vote that remained constant and they (BDP) in turn had a downturn is an indication that the BDP woes are self-inflicted. The single most overriding cause is of course preoccupation with factionalism. Other than factionalism, the downturn could also mean that indeed the media campaigned vigorously against the BDP, as Moupo rightly pointed out in a radio interview that the media could have contributed 5 - 10 percent to their vote. Further, the downturn could also mean that the BDP campaign strategy was not perfectly polished, as the BNF was able to push the message that Robert Masitara was an independent candidate detached from the BDP and promising voters the impossible. The BNF message tended to resonate with the electorate.
Eric Moberg, in his article entitled: A Theory of Democratic Politics, postulates that in politics both compatibility and non-compatibility are common and he contends that:
* Different ideological positions are likely to be in conflict with each other, and thus not compatible.
* Positions about interests may, on the contrary, very well be compatible.
He concludes by pointing out that political compromises about interests are likely to be easier than compromises about ideological matters. The nature and extent of compatibility therefore has a bearing on that of compromise.
The challenges therefore that the BDP has to contend with, fall within political compromises that are compatible and thus manageable. This view also comes out from the writings of Spencer Mogapi, in his weekly column ‘The Watch Dog’, who once observed as follows: “From recent exchanges, the BDP looks like a dying clan, perishing right before our very eyes which is rather surprising given that the death is not orchestrated from outside but from within, borne not so much out of any major agreements over policy and ideology, but rather out of petty personal hatreds and childish egotism”.
Opposition Parties are ideally discovering the folly of fighting one another and that unity is key. For a long time, the BDP was kept in power by amongst many other reasons, being a united Party. It will therefore be folly on the part of the BDP to emulate opposition Parties on an issue they know very well to be destructive.
On the last, it will be unkempt of me not to congratulate the BNF President Otsweletse Moupo on his sound victory and we wish him well in his new undertaking. He must however quiz his counterpart Gil Saleshando on the commitment of the BCP to the memorandum of understanding on the basis of the 1280 BCP voters gone AWOL. Bravo bravo! Also to Robert Masitara. True of what he said, when he entered the ring he was no politician, but at the end of the bout, he had mustered the robes. From now you are a politician, keep going.
Joseph Ringtone Nteletsa
Gaborone
