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The main battle of the power struggle is between veteran secretary general Daniel Kwelagobe and cabinet minister Margaret Nasha of the Nkate-Merafhe camp. Kwelagobe’s successful defence of his party post could signal the unfolding of his plan to groom a successor to take over when he retires in 2007. The flip side is if Nasha wins, how long will she serve the party and who will succeed her? Another important factional war pits Specially Elected MP, Botsalo Ntuane of the Kedikilwe-Kwelagobe camp, against cabinet minister Jacob Nkate for the deputy secretary general’s post. Nkate, who had previously tried to unseat Kwelagobe, is the incumbent. The two battles are critical to the entire factional rivalry in the BDP. The party has not hidden the fact that the congress will be pre-occupied with factional fighting for positions. Unlike the 2003 congress and elections in Gantsi, the war in Serowe will be between cabinet ministers and those not in cabinet. If such people as Kwelagobe lose, they will be annihilated and driven to the political dark end. But if his camp wins, they could resurrect and strenghen themselves sufficiently to use the primaries to oust their rivals. The situation may also bring a realignment of forces in the party, leading to both President Festus Mogae and his deputy Ian Khama rethinking their attitude towards the Kedikilwe-Kwelagobe faction. The faction would have been vindicated if it wins because not everyone is satisfied by the leadership’s handling of the current war in the party. Indications are that the Kedikilwe-Kwelagobe group is beginning to win the sympathy of more party members.
While the party is totally consumed in the factional wars, there is a school of thought that the leadership has isolated the BDP from the ordinary people. There is a perception that the party in poised for a situation where people in the central committee must also be in cabinet. To support such an argument, some BDP insiders cite the composition of the Nkate-Merafhe lobby list that derives almost 90 percent of its candidates from the cabinet. The other observation is that the line-up of the faction is full of technocrats with no grassroots support. Other questions that arise are whether by populating the central committee with cabinet ministers, the leadership of the BDP is doing the party justice. There is a feeling that the party needs people who are relatively free from the day-to-day operations of government to sit in the central committee and run its affairs. For example in the A Team, there are only two people who are not in cabinet, namely councillor Maxwell Motowane and Moshupa Member of Parliament, Maithoko Mooka. However, BDP executive secretary, Dr. Comma Serema contends that there is nothing sinister about the set up as the party constitution allows every member of the BDP to run for central committee elections.
Meanwhile, the Kedikilwe-Kwelagobe campaign list does not have a single cabinet minister. It has people such as Paul Paledi for deputy treasurer, Sebati Sebati and Ina Kandjii who are neither in Parliament nor council. The scenario brings to question issues of fairness in the party regarding the distribution of cabinet positions. It is reminiscent of the politics of the opposition Botswana National Front (BNF) under the leadership of the Dr Kenneth Koma when those in Parliament had a clique and cronies of their own.
On the agenda side, whatever the party will discuss before the elections in Serowe will not be taken seriously by its followers as they will be preoccupied with elections. Key people in the party have deliberately allowed the situation to deteriorate. As the party tears itself part, it might pay a huge price.
At the policy level, the BDP as the ruling party must come up with strategies to deal with unemployment and turn the economy around. The country is also facing the problem of an exodus of investors and the BDP leadership needs to tell the nation and its followers what it is doing to address such matters. It seems that the national coffers are over burdened by the president’s international trips and other commitments such as the fight against HIV/AIDS. Meanwhile some argue that the BDP should not be engrossed in factional fighting to the detriment of governance, which should be its core responsibility and focus. The highlight of the congress will be the official opening where Mogae is expected to talk about party unity and the elusive compromise initiated by Khama. Mogae may also talk about Value Added Tax, the devaluation of the Pula and spell out what government intends to do to deal with complaints arising from such matters.
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