A careful reading of the situation shows that this was not just a case of young wannabes wrangling for positions. There was a lot at stake as the party’s rival factions fought an open proxy war. At the end, the faction that successfully backed Vice President Ian Khama for the party chairmanship last year has further consolidated its grip on party by taking control of the youth wing.
Prior to the congress, the losing side had done its arithmetic, and found that their numbers did not add up. After the Gantsi congress, there is a new balance of power in the party. The influence previously enjoyed by the Kwelagobe-Kedikilwe-Matlhabaphiri axis has waned considerably. On this score, there was no way that the losing team - led by Kefentse Mzwinila and backed by the group aligned to the Daniel Kwelagobe/Ponatshego Kedikilwe crowd - would emerge victorious at the youth congress. The only honourable way out of a humiliating defeat was to hold out an olive branch to the other side, and suggest a compromise youth executive committee drawn from both groups, and have the congress endorse it. This being an election year provided an excellent justification to broach the subject. It was sold on the pretext that the party needed to maintain unity within its ranks as it goes to the general elections. For a while, it seemed the deal was done - that is until the kingpins behind the other group tore up the piece of paper the compromise list was drawn on. They had also done their math, and the picture that appeared before them looked rosy. Kasane was going to be a nice little picnic coming just after the huge party in Gantsi, where they wrestled control of the party from the Kwelagobe group. Their position was that avoiding an open contest now had far-reaching consequences for the future: it would compromise inner party democracy, and formalise and institutionalise the idea that nothing could ever be left to the ballot without beating the compromise route. Having set a precedent, the party would remain hamstrung for a long time to come.
It appears the other side had pinned its entire hopes on the “compromise list”. Even after Peter Meswele had announced that he was out of it, they still believed that he could be made to come round. It has emerged that on President Festus Mogae’s arrival from the summit of African leaders in Ethiopia, Kwelagobe went to see him to press the compromise issue. Even hours before the congress, they were lobbying hard for it. To those with a long history in the BDP, the length to which Kwelagobe’s group went to chase a peace deal was strange given that when it used to have the upper hand, it settled for nothing less than total annihilation of its opponents. So what has changed?
Sources say after the Gantsi adventure, the Kwelagobe-Kedikilwe group was demoralised and in disarray. Then it regrouped, and scored some stunning victories in the primary elections, but not enough to swing the balance of power in its favour. A compromise committee would have ensured them a presence in an important structure of the party, while they continue to rebuild their power-base. Most importantly, the deal - had it gone through - would guarantee them leadership of the youth wing on a silver platter after two years. But most importantly, Kasane was a harbinger of the battles that lie ahead.
Next year’s Easter weekend will be the women’s wing congress, leading to the party’s all-important congress in July, where the Kwelagobe-Kedikilwe group would either make a comeback by snatching some strategic positions (like retaining the secretary general, treasury and taking back the deputy secretary general’s post from Jacob Nkate), or face further marginalisation. Khama would most likely be returned to the chair unopposed.
There is presently only one person with the stature and heart to challenge Khama, and that is Kedikilwe. But this time, he is unlikely to do so given that there is a real possibility that Khama could appoint him vice president during his first term. But all that is in the somewhat distant future. In the immediate future, the party’s factions have to contend with the general elections, widely believed to be due in October. The outcome of the general elections may well lead to another realignment in the balance of power. The group with the most councillors and MPs will be in control.
That group will determine the National Assembly’s Speaker, and the deputy. It will further determine composition of the party’s central committee at the next congress. To a great extent, the dominant group will also decide who the next secretary general is, and influence Khama’s choice of vice president. It is an open secret in the BDP that Kwelagobe’s dream is to pass the mettle to a successor of his choice.
The current deputy secretary general - Nkate - does not feature in the list of Kwelagobe’s favourites. Left to the man himself, the choice would be narrowed to either Gaotlhaotse Matlhabaphiri or Pelonomi Venson. In all probability, Kwelagobe will not step down as secretary general next year, but will certainly do so at the 2007 congress - a year before President Festus Mogae passes the presidency to Khama. The group that will have an upper hand then will take the rich pickings. It is a few years to go before that era, but jockeying has already begun - and Kasane was just a chapter in an unfolding story.
